[News] With the 34th overall pick the Flames select G Mason McDonald

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

So, 20 games is an acceptable metric by which to determine the line between a "bust" and a "success"? I don't think your recital of numbers does anything at all to counter FDR's assertion.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Goalies should not drafted as 18 year olds. In terms of goalie development as 18 year old they basically have got to the point that they can put their equipment on correctly without Mom or Dad helping them.

Best young goalie of all time was Steve Mason Drafted 69th overall (3rd round) by Columbus. in 2006.. Nhl rookie of the year in 2008-09 as a 20 year old.

Carey Price Drafted 5th overall in 2005 and made his NHL debut in 2007-08 as a 20 year old.

Marc Andre Fluery drafted 1st overall in 2003 did not play his first NHL game until he was 20, almost 21.

I know that these guys playing in the NHL at age 20 is not too shabby , but these are the very best young goalies, basically of all time.... compare that to the skaters playing the year that they get drafted....

What are you talking about?

Off the top of my head there is Patrick Roy, Martin Brodeur, Terry Sawchuk, Glen Hall, Grant Fuhr, etc etc....all current or future HOF goalies who played in the NHL at ages 21 or younger.

Or am I misunderstanding what ever point it is you are making?

[Fischy13]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

without having looked at the list, I would guess they are all 19 year olds

Fucale, Jarry and Desrosiers?

Yup, and Comrie

[Enoch Root]

Comrie is from California

[Da_Chief]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Goalies should not drafted as 18 year olds. In terms of goalie development as 18 year old they basically have got to the point that they can put their equipment on correctly without Mom or Dad helping them.

Best young goalie of all time was Steve Mason Drafted 69th overall (3rd round) by Columbus. in 2006.. Nhl rookie of the year in 2008-09 as a 20 year old.

Carey Price Drafted 5th overall in 2005 and made his NHL debut in 2007-08 as a 20 year old.

Marc Andre Fluery drafted 1st overall in 2003 did not play his first NHL game until he was 20, almost 21.

I know that these guys playing in the NHL at age 20 is not too shabby , but these are the very best young goalies, basically of all time.... compare that to the skaters playing the year that they get drafted....

Just casue I want to. Fluery played 22 games right after he was drafted and from what I recall he played very well in those games. The next 2 years he'd spend in the AHL.

[t0rrent98]

He's got the Calmness of Carey Price according to THW. Who doesn't want another Carey Price type goalie, he's God.

[mrdonkey]

Originally Posted by t0rrent98

He's got the Calmness of Carey Price according to THW. Who doesn't want another Carey Price type goalie, he's God.

For a 2nd round pick I would be happy if he became a guy who can split 1A/1B duty. Comparing him to one of the best goalies in the game might be setting the bar a bit high.

[Fischy13]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Comrie is from California

This says differently.... He's on the development roster

http://www.tsn.ca/world_jrs/feature/?id=121045

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Fischy13

This says differently.... He's on the development roster

http://www.tsn.ca/world_jrs/feature/?id=121045

Interesting. hockeydb lists him as being from Newport Beach, California. He must have dual status - interesting that he wants to play for Canada.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

To add to this: One of the reason why goalies appear to be inherently more risky as draft picks is because there are so few of them in the first place, vying for only 60 NHL jobs each season. Comparitively speaking, the NHL employs a basic platoon of around 210 defensemen, and 390 forwards. I expect that relatively speaking, the number of goalie successes and busts in the draft is actually fairly comparable to skaters.

I think it would all be relative. More available spots for forwards and dmen but also a way bigger potential pool to fill those spots with. The ratio of positions on every team are roughly the same in every league so the entire pool should also be roughly the same.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

This post doesn't have a leg to stand on.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

This line of thinking is patently ridiculous. Professional scouts are clearly not soothsayers; able to peer into the future to see what befalls prospective professional hockey players on their journey to the NHL. They are clearly much better at making projections than everyone else—especially the casual fan—but they are still limited by the information they have at hand. No one can know what will happen in the course of two or three years to affect the development of any one player; Shea Webber was a mid-second round pick in large part because no one foresaw a tremendous growth spurt in his future.

To compare this pick to McKeown makes no sense, since fourteen teams passed on him in the intervening picks, and Buffalo passed on him twice. Clearly, there is something in McKeown's game at present that sufficiently convinced most NHL scouts to hold off on him until the late second round. To put it another way, every team in the NHL who had the opportunity to draft John Gaudreau and didn't should not be faulted for their decision. Good for the Flames to take him, but they got lucky. At the time he was drafted, there was no good reason to be convinced that he would be as good as he is today, and he had everything working against him. Who knows why, but there is a reason McKeown slipped, and it most likely is a very good one.

Your missing my point. I am agreeing with you. I am saying if you want to play arm chair gm you have to do the draft today. In 5 years you cant compare this pick to all other available picks that were left. You need to pick one guy you woukd of rather had. Also you need to do this for every single pick and then compare your body of work to the team you are comparing to. Then you can complain. My issue is that people go back and complain based on hindsight.

I am not entirely convinced that you could prove statisicaly that some teams are better than others at drafting. This entire difference in teams results in the draft might be indistinguishable from luck.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by GGG

This entire difference in teams results in the draft might be indistinguishable from luck.

Developing players after drafting plays a huge role

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GGG

Your missing my point. I am agreeing with you. I am saying if you want to play arm chair gm you have to do the draft today. In 5 years you cant compare this pick to all other available picks that were left. You need to pick one guy you woukd of rather had. Also you need to do this for every single pick and then compare your body of work to the team you are comparing to. Then you can complain. My issue is that people go back and complain based on hindsight.

I am not entirely convinced that you could prove statisicaly that some teams are better than others at drafting. This entire difference in teams results in the draft might be indistinguishable from luck.

In a real statistical analysis, I would be shocked if it were statistically different than zero (random luck).

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by GGG

I am not entirely convinced that you could prove statistically that some teams are better than others at drafting. This entire difference in teams results in the draft might be indistinguishable from luck.

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

In a real statistical analysis, I would be shocked if it were statistically different than zero (random luck).

This process doesn't happen in a vacuum and there can be no control group, so all we have is the product of any team's system, and use that in the analysis.

So you're suggesting the difference between the Oilers record of drafting/developing versus the Wings would be no different statistically than zero?

Can not see how this could be true.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

This process doesn't happen in a vacuum and there can be no control group, so all we have is the product of any team's system, and use that in the analysis.

So you're suggesting the difference between the Oilers record of drafting/developing versus the Wings would be no different statistically than zero?

Can not see how this could be true.

Random difference does not mean the same thing as equal.

In any random distribution, there are winners and losers by chance (just as some people are taller than others)

In order to be statistically different from zero, there would have to be enough consistent evidence to reasonably eliminate chance. And that would likely take many decades.

Another problem here is that the situation gets muddied by development. It is probably safe to say that Detroit has been better at development than the Oilers. It would be extremely difficult to separate the two, but if you could, it is very likely that the draft distribution of success would look very much like a random distribution.

[GettinIggyWithIt]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Interesting. hockeydb lists him as being from Newport Beach, California. He must have dual status - interesting that he wants to play for Canada.

Yeah he's got dual citizenship but he's represented Canada internationally for awhile now. He's the son of well known Canadian businessman Bill Comrie (Brick) and half brother of Mike and Paul Comrie as well.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Goalies should not drafted as 18 year olds. In terms of goalie development as 18 year old they basically have got to the point that they can put their equipment on correctly without Mom or Dad helping them.

Are you saying that you think the rule should be changed so that goalies aren't draft eligible until they are 20, or that you believe teams should never draft a goalie?

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Of the 2011 draft picks 31-60 in the 2013-14 season, as 20 year olds 17 have already played in at least 1 NHL game. 6 have already played in 20 games.

Out of the 2010 draft 15 players have played in the NHL... 8 more than 20 games

Out of the 2009 draft 20 guys with an NHL game. 14 with 20 or more NHL games 5 with 100 NHL games

Not really watching the draft as closely as your name would indicate

Let's look at arguably the best draft since 1980, 2003: Every player drafted in the first round has played at least 1 NHL game; 28 have played at least 100 NHL games; and 20 have played at least 400 NHL games.

Now, go to the second round. There were 38 players chosen in the second round. 29 have played at least 1 NHL game; 16 have played at least 100 (11 of whom were still in the NHL last season); and 7 have played over 400 (plus two goalies over 200).


57.9% of the players drafted in the second round of 2003 did not reach the 100 NHL games played mark. Only 11 players drafted in the second round of 2003 are still in the NHL.



Now, here's an interesting stat relevant to this topic:

Of the 68 players chosen in the first two rounds of 2003, 3 were goalies. All three are currently the starter on the team that drafted them, and two have won the Stanley Cup with the team that drafted them: Fleury (PIT), Crawford (CHI), and Howard (DET).

[GGG]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

This process doesn't happen in a vacuum and there can be no control group, so all we have is the product of any team's system, and use that in the analysis.

So you're suggesting the difference between the Oilers record of drafting/developing versus the Wings would be no different statistically than zero?

Can not see how this could be true.

If we have 256 coin flippers flip a coin 8 times and try to get heads and get a binomial distribution you woukd have 1 flipper with 8 heads and 1 with 8 tails.

Is that one coin flipper really good or just lucky. The draft could be the same way. All scouts are roughly equally good so their performance relative to eachother may be random.

One area that is random is picking stocks. No one year over year picking stocks can consistantly outperform random chance.

[A Shot Wide]

Anyone else getting more excited the more they read up on this guy? 6'4 with a calm personality and demeanor, improved greatly after he got traded and in the sweep against Halifax he was outstanding apparently. Then in the U-18 he was MVP goaltender, crazy.

I like this because Treliving and co. know this is very early in the rebuild and are filling a hole (regardless of what posters think, and as much as I like Gillies, goaltending was certainly a hole.) If we can get a #1 center and starting goaltender in this draft, that would be insane.

Also he compares to Mike Smith, and is said to have great puck handling ability. If anyone knows how valuable a player like that is, it's Treliving.