Russia invades Ukraine

[CaptainCrunch]

Russian Troops are within 20 km's of Kiev, The Ukrainian government is offering guns and arms to citizens to defend the city.

[Hack&Lube]

All the baltic states like Latvia and Estonia are seeing their futures play out as Russian has demonstrated their willingness to mobilize to recreate the Eastern Bloc under Putin's thumb.

[81MC]

So if Russia takes controls of NPPs and shuts of the taps to any nations that aid Ukraine, Ukraine has no choice but to surrender, yeah? Modern life without electricity is not feasible.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by AltaGuy

No, there is no military option that would win this for Ukraine and the West. But there is a great deal of leverage that will not be used. Shutting Russia out of SWIFT would hurt them immediately, but would also hurt many interests in the West. Seizing assets and funds will not happen on a large scale for the same reasons.

The West could win, but they won't because there is no stomach for it and it would hurt too many pocketbooks.

As per Boris Johnson's speech just now, it doesn't sound like removal from SWIFT is happening. He spoke of it as an option, not an inevitability.

[I am Beast]

Originally Posted by Hack&Lube

All the baltic states like Latvia and Estonia are seeing their futures play out as Russian has demonstrated their willingness to mobilize to recreate the Eastern Bloc under Putin's thumb.

Kaliningrad may want to unify back with Poland

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

It occurs to me - and I'm sure I'm just late to think about this - that there is another angle to this involving China and Taiwan. Is this not just a test case for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, in terms of what the likely repercussions are and the global appetite for responding to an incursion of this type? I know, the two situations are not analogous, but it still seems like if you take real, significant, painful steps against Putin, you're also putting Xi on notice that this sort of thing will not result in appeasement or halfhearted slaps on the wrist.

I don't know, maybe I'm completely out to lunch about that.

[Monahammer]

Stoltenberg reiterates that Nato not currently considering troops in Ukraine proper.

I am wondering if we see them move to protect Lviv when tanks are within Kiev, could lead to a split Ukraine a la Korea or Vietnam.

[FormerPresJamesTaylor]

China and Taiwan was in the back of my mind too, Corsi.

[Muta]

Russians themselves are going to have to play a big part inside their own country to change the course of these events. It will be difficult and dangerous to do so, but it has to happen at some point. They have more power than they think they do, especially in numbers.

[AltaGuy]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

When is the last time there's been a clean decisive victory since WWII? Korea ended in a stalemate.

This war isn't likely going to be a short war for Russia either. Even if they decapitate government in Kyiv and manage to round up most of the current leadership there will be a long and drawn out insurgency/government in exile that will bleed Russia for a very long time.

There's a really dystopian future possible here: while some Ukrainians might keep fighting, after "peace talks" and Russian bribes to the right members of the GOP, we in the West might brand any remaining Ukrainian resistance terrorists and go on with our lives.

Putin is betting that in the end, most Ukrainians will accept the same fate as his own population - security and stability for their freedoms. Those who refuse to accept this trade will be terrorists.

[karl262]

The people filming Russian forces and posting to social very brave.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by I am Beast

Kaliningrad may want to unify back with Poland

You mean Germany?

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

It occurs to me - and I'm sure I'm just late to think about this - that there is another angle to this involving China and Taiwan. Is this not just a test case for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, in terms of what the likely repercussions are and the global appetite for responding to an incursion of this type? I know, the two situations are not analogous, but it still seems like if you take real, significant, painful steps against Putin, you're also putting Xi on notice that this sort of thing will not result in appeasement or halfhearted slaps on the wrist.

I don't know, maybe I'm completely out to lunch about that.

Not out to lunch at all. Anyone with a mind in global geopolitics is worried that China is the real pusher behind this. Their economy is massively in the ####ter too.

[I am Beast]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

It occurs to me - and I'm sure I'm just late to think about this - that there is another angle to this involving China and Taiwan. Is this not just a test case for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, in terms of what the likely repercussions are and the global appetite for responding to an incursion of this type? I know, the two situations are not analogous, but it still seems like if you take real, significant, painful steps against Putin, you're also putting Xi on notice that this sort of thing will not result in appeasement or halfhearted slaps on the wrist.

I don't know, maybe I'm completely out to lunch about that.

not out to lunch here, China will need to pick a side first. Im guessing they are watching the response from the west. Watch for a Russia backed attack into Israel to start the distraction.

[djsFlames]

144 million people vs a small collection of power hungry deplorables.

Get it done Russia.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

When is the last time there's been a clean decisive victory since WWII?.

Crimea?

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

It occurs to me - and I'm sure I'm just late to think about this - that there is another angle to this involving China and Taiwan. Is this not just a test case for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, in terms of what the likely repercussions are and the global appetite for responding to an incursion of this type? I know, the two situations are not analogous, but it still seems like if you take real, significant, painful steps against Putin, you're also putting Xi on notice that this sort of thing will not result in appeasement or halfhearted slaps on the wrist.

I don't know, maybe I'm completely out to lunch about that.

I think Biden has already said he's not interested in seeing American Troops in a Ukrainian war. He's kind of left this in the hands of the European NATO allies, though America will ship weapons and supplies and apply sanctions.



The land war will likely be over by the time the UN and NATO stop talking and the Russians will be completely dug in. I doubt that Ukraine can expect to see much in the way of actual help.



I'm pretty sure that China is looking at this with a lot of interest. I still doubt that they'd outright invade Taiwan. If they do go after Taiwan, they'll simply flatten it and demand their surrender. And the American Navy fighting under the shadow of China isn't a great prospect for the US.



I still think that China is more interested in resources then they are the conquest of Taiwan.

[81MC]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

It occurs to me - and I'm sure I'm just late to think about this - that there is another angle to this involving China and Taiwan. Is this not just a test case for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, in terms of what the likely repercussions are and the global appetite for responding to an incursion of this type? I know, the two situations are not analogous, but it still seems like if you take real, significant, painful steps against Putin, you're also putting Xi on notice that this sort of thing will not result in appeasement or halfhearted slaps on the wrist.

I don't know, maybe I'm completely out to lunch about that.

Yes, that’s exactly how this looks. And Russia’s control over western necessities pales compared to China. Once the blood is spilt and Russia is in control in Ukraine, China will talk about diplomatic resolutions underhandedly and recognize the invaders as legitimate. They will talk, like they did last night, about opposing violence and respecting the rule of law. They’ll just leave out the rule of their law. If Russia is allowed to take Ukraine, it’s carte blanche on all ‘disputed’ territory.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Muta

Russians themselves are going to have to play a big part inside their own country to change the course of these events. It will be difficult and dangerous to do so, but it has to happen at some point. They have more power than they think they do, especially in numbers.

Honestly, though, would you do this if you were in their shoes? I mean we're talking about western countries being hesitant to respond even with serious economic penalties like SWIFT and asset seizure, and we're going to suggest that the ordinary Russian citizen put their lives and wellbeing on the line to oppose their own government? I don't know what my mindset would be as a Russian citizen but I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people thought, "look, no one else in the world cares enough to even take a hit in the pocketbook, I'm not going out and getting the crap beat out of me and being thrown in jail indefinitely." The people who are willing to take those risks are, frankly, heroes.

[I am Beast]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

You mean Germany?

Pretty sure Kalingrad between Poland and Lithuania, unless we going old school to WWII