Craig Conroy and "The Dallas Model"

[Ashes]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I hope they don't rush it.

The team will be entertaining and on the upswing likely in 2-3 years. Enjoy that period of time and don't jump the shark to get them over the edge before they are ready organically.

I fully agree with this, and I think our future success will also largely depend on the Flames learning from their own mistakes and fighting the urge to "accelerate" the process. The biggest lessons I've learned from watching this franchise:

- Don't spend big $$$ on FA's until you're ready to compete (1-3 year deals for now, max. Which to Conroy's credit is what he talked about on garbage bag day.)
- Don't let any UFA's walk - get value for them no matter what. draft capital is the lifeblood of the league.
- Don't trade away draft picks (especially 1st rounders) before you're a team on the cusp of competing, and even then sometimes we should hold on to them and keep the pipeline stocked.
- Prioritize skill and compete over everything else at the draft.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Robbob

I know Dallas was singled out, and Jiri touched on it, but the model really is draft well and hitting on those players later players.

Dallas did it to an extreme in that one draft, but you can point at various teams that have found elite players or very good players outside of the top 10 (Boston, TB, CHI, LA). TB with Pointe and Kucherov, to me that is the other home run scenario where those later picks altered the franchise.

The odds are really not in your favour finding that player late, which is why scouting is key, but when you do it is the equivalent of adding a top 10 pick talent to your team.

Flames getting Gaudreau in the 4th round was a game changer for the Flames in the last rebuild but that's not something a team should count on when it comes to projecting the future. It's hard enough to get the picks right in the first round let alone later rounds. A lot of the better players that slip out of the first rounds are talented players with question marks. I just think you need to ignore the question marks after the first round and draft skill over measurables as I think a lot of organizations still over prioritize size.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Flames getting Gaudreau in the 4th round was a game changer for the Flames in the last rebuild but that's not something a team should count on when it comes to projecting the future. It's hard enough to get the picks right in the first round let alone later rounds. A lot of the better players that slip out of the first rounds are talented players with question marks. I just think you need to ignore the question marks after the first round and draft skill over measurables as I think a lot of organizations still over prioritize size.

Gaudreau is set off by Bennett being a dud 4OA. Even with his sort of resurgence in Fla, he produces at a Zary/Mangiapane rate. He doesn't compare to a Makar, Brady Tkachuk, Marner, Kariya, etc.

[NewFan]

I think the team needs to have elite players in 2 areas out of 3. In other word,
if you have elite forward group and defense group you can have above average G to win the cup. If you have elite D group and elite G you can have above average F group.
The flames may have Wolf who can become elite for us. But I'm still not sure about it.
So this team have a long way to build a consistent good team.
Hope this years draft help us to take a big step to reach our goal.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Flames getting Gaudreau in the 4th round was a game changer for the Flames in the last rebuild but that's not something a team should count on when it comes to projecting the future. It's hard enough to get the picks right in the first round let alone later rounds. A lot of the better players that slip out of the first rounds are talented players with question marks. I just think you need to ignore the question marks after the first round and draft skill over measurables as I think a lot of organizations still over prioritize size.

For sure you can't count on a Kucherov, Pointe, or Gaudreau to land in your lap. For the Flames, I think they fell into that trap and rushed things, maybe a bit because of the found money that was Gaudreau.

As much fun as that win over Vancouver was, it altered the development or runway for Bennett, and probably made Trelving pull the trigger on Hamonic.

Where I agree with Conroy is this team is closer to a retool based on how the roster is built and the prospect pool they have built up. They are missing that skilled go to player, but they have a number of interesting younger players that are showing some moxie. If they can get some players make that step and add some skill, they players start slotting into where they should be.

[WickerChicken]

In the garbage bag day presser, Conny mentioned cap space was a weapon and that there are teams up against the cap that could use some relief.

Have there been posts suggesting what teams / players could fit that description and the potential compensation for helping out?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Robbob

For sure you can't count on a Kucherov, Pointe, or Gaudreau to land in your lap. For the Flames, I think they fell into that trap and rushed things, maybe a bit because of the found money that was Gaudreau.

As much fun as that win over Vancouver was, it altered the development or runway for Bennett, and probably made Trelving pull the trigger on Hamonic.

Where I agree with Conroy is this team is closer to a retool based on how the roster is built and the prospect pool they have built up. They are missing that skilled go to player, but they have a number of interesting younger players that are showing some moxie. If they can get some players make that step and add some skill, they players start slotting into where they should be.

Bennett was mishandled. But he also wasn't an elite C which is what he was supposed to become. Flames fans thought he'd outdo Draisaitl and Reinhart.

I think having Hamilton and really wanting him to pair with Gio made Treliving go get Hamonic, because on paper he thought it was a good fit with Brodie.

Frankly, while there were mistakes, I don't know if any set of circumstances puts the Flames in a whole lot better position than now. They might, in fact, have delayed a rebuild even longer. They might have been a Nashville.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by WickerChicken

In the garbage bag day presser, Conny mentioned cap space was a weapon and that there are teams up against the cap that could use some relief.

Have there been posts suggesting what teams / players could fit that description and the potential compensation for helping out?

Not that I’ve seen.

One problem with a strategy of taking on cap dumps is most highly-paid veterans have NTCs.

[Toonage]

A while back someone suggested Nate Schmidt from Winnipeg. M-NTC but could still be a candidate. 1 year left at around $6M. Jets could use that space. Send him here with a 2024 4th and a 2026 3rd? Too much? Flames might want another veteran LHD?

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Bennett was mishandled. But he also wasn't an elite C which is what he was supposed to become. Flames fans thought he'd outdo Draisaitl and Reinhart.

I think having Hamilton and really wanting him to pair with Gio made Treliving go get Hamonic, because on paper he thought it was a good fit with Brodie.

Frankly, while there were mistakes, I don't know if any set of circumstances puts the Flames in a whole lot better position than now. They might, in fact, have delayed a rebuild even longer. They might have been a Nashville.

Yeah, that 2014 draft was probably one of the worst drafts ever for the 4-10 picks. I also think you are right that after that team missed their window, as flawed as the team was, in a few years we might be looking back and saying that the summer a couple years ago was probably for the best. Conroy is just pulling off the bandaid now.

[WickerChicken]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Not that I’ve seen.

One problem with a strategy of taking on cap dumps is most highly-paid veterans have NTCs.

NTC's will be an issue for some players, especially those on the tail end of their careers.

One would think veteran players with one year left on their current deal, and needing a restart to rejuvenate their career, might be willing to waive their NTC's for the opportunity the Flames can provide. Flip the player at the deadline. Win win.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Yeah, that 2014 draft was probably one of the worst drafts ever for the 4-10 picks. I also think you are right that after that team missed their window, as flawed as the team was, in a few years we might be looking back and saying that the summer a couple years ago was probably for the best. Conroy is just pulling off the bandaid now.

I say this in part because I think they still lose Tkachuk and maybe Gaudreau. But I suppose who knows wht they do with the pick they traded for Hamonic.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I re-listened to the Conroy presser again this morning. I think this thread is moving a bit beyond that.


The "Dallas Model":
Conroy isn't going to follow what Dallas did like a blueprint of some sort, so we can all take a step back and relax about Conroy having some sort of unrealistic expectations about hitting out of the ballpark drafts like that. Remember, he isn't a moron. So what did he mean by "The Dallas Model"?


He seemed to pick Dallas out as just one of the many examples of teams that turned it around like Dallas did. Listen to what his definitions are when asked:


Rebuild: "Sell all your vets and try not to win." "10-0 games." What we on this board call "Burn it to the ground Rebuild", or even "Purposefully tanking". What are examples of this, both good and bad? I would say Colorado was as good as it gets. The bad? Buffalo and Arizona who are still both trying to find their way back, though Arizona is not the greatest test case with their budget and all-around unique circumstances. You get the idea.


Retool: You sell players but keep a good handful of established vets, and you build back up through the draft. This is what I personally call a rebuild. You aren't tanking, but you do draft near the bottom of the standings.



What I personally call a retool is when you have a disappointing season, and you sell a couple of players, maybe trade a member of the core in a hockey trade, but the expectation is that you come back the next season strong. For example, I thought that losing Gaudreau and trading Tkachuk, getting those returns, signing Kadri - that was a retool. Huberdeau, Weegar and Kadri were all basically core-pieces.



At any rate, if you listen to Conroy, he is uninterested in creating an environment like Buffalo had (and probably still has). The young guys haven't really developed well. They don't know what it takes to win. Conroy doesn't want to have a team where you are getting creamed night-in and night-out, where the expectation is "Losing is good". He wants to set the expectation of "Playoffs!" every year.



Does that mean playoffs are an actual expected outcome? Absolutely not. He cites that many of the vets had career years. He hopes that a lot of the young players take another step forward this year. However, when asked about competing next year, he stated: "Well, this is going to take some time." What do you interpret from that? The he was asked about trading some of the futures that Calgary has for some better players, and it was like he wasn't even thinking of where the question was going. I interpreted the question as: "Will you trade futures for older established players in an effort to turn this around next season?", but his response was like he didn't even connect it. His reply was: [loosely] "if there is a 23 year old, 22 to 18 year old". Sounds like he isn't going to move picks for really established players, but players that are still trying to establish themselves, if they are available.


Then he was asked about UFA market - and his reply was again not one that you expect to hear if you are pushing the team to be in the playoffs next year. He basically said: "If there is something that makes sense with money and term." Talked about the importance of keeping some spots open for internal growth as well later on in the presser.


When asked about Markstrom, he was intentionally vague there in my opinion, when asked about if Markstrom would return. It sure sounded like to me that Markstrom probably won't be here if a good trade can be had.



So this team dropped in the standings dramatically after all the trades went through. Vets had career years (which in some cases aren't repeatable). Markstrom - still the best goalie in the organization for winning games at this point - is LIKELY going to be dealt. Conroy is not interested in making moves where futures are traded for win-now vets, and the UFA market is sounding more like something that the Flames are probably not going to be very active in. The improvement is going to have to come from the young players basically.


So where do you think the Flames will finish next season? An easier way to approach this is: "What teams will be worse?"



San Jose definitely. I don't even see them as a team that burned it to the ground. They just got bad, and moved some contracts that didn't make sense for them to keep any longer. They were a surprisingly old team last season. What about Chicago? I think Chicago takes a step forward - they are likely coming out with either Celebrini, or Demidov or one of the top defencemen, plus they actively looked to improve last season before injuries took them out, and Perry finished it off.



I don't have a guaranteed worse team in the standings after that. Anaheim? Maybe. Columbus? Doubtful - they will hire a new (competent) coach. Their young core take a step forward. They will probably make a few moves to improve too. Their rebuild is behind them, unless something goes off the rails. Arizona? Fat chance - they imploded this year, but they have a lot of young talent, and a brand new owner that probably wants improvement now. Montreal? I cant see Montreal being worse this year. Ottawa? Ditto for them. These are all teams that SHOULD be moving up, not down. They may not all move up, but Calgary is a team that is moving down. They are just not going to be a Buffalo or Colorado that intentionally loses.


Flames are not going to be adding significant talent to this lineup outside of the draft. They are not a UFA destination anyway. They are not interested in trading draft capital for 'win now' players, and Conroy stated that this is going to take some time. They are just not intentionally going to be terrible.


Does this not mean that they are going to do everything possible to avoid picking in the top 3. I think it is actually going to be an expectation. What other teams are actually going to be worse in the foreseeable 2-3 years? Calgary is likely to be one of those teams. They are likely to lose more than they win, but the difference is that Conroy wants to lose games by 5-4 rather than 10-1. Maybe you don't lose AS OFTEN, as I imagine that San Jose is likely going to be even more aggressive next season at losing as they look like they are about to get much younger and will likely move a couple of other guys too. You aren't going to out-tank San Jose even if you tried as they are just terrible. However, what other teams would legitimately be worse than Calgary?



Again, Calgary isn't tanking, which is what Conroy calls rebuilding. They are, however, not going to be trading futures for win now players either. Dallas was - IMO - just an example of what he means rather than any sort of exact blueprint on how to navigate. Teams that have drafted high, but didn't do what Buffalo and Colorado did. I think we need to just listen to the entire presser rather than trying to get insight from any one particular point.


I would sum up what Conroy was saying as this is a rebuild - not a burn it to the ground rebuild where the Flames are going to tank - that is going to take a few seasons to undertake, and that they are going to build it back up through the draft. Lots of 3-2, 4-5 and 5-4 losses next season, rather than 5-0, 8-1 and 10-2 losses.

[traptor]

Originally Posted by Toonage

A while back someone suggested Nate Schmidt from Winnipeg. M-NTC but could still be a candidate. 1 year left at around $6M. Jets could use that space. Send him here with a 2024 4th and a 2026 3rd? Too much? Flames might want another veteran LHD?

Yup this is what the Flames should do if they want to add and what the habs did to us.

Get serviceable player with 1-2 years remaining that may have fallen out of grace abit as a cap dump.

Georgiev could be another cap dump we could target if we move Marky.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by traptor

Georgiev could be another cap dump we could target if we move Marky.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Inferno

Why not? They key is what he comes with.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Why not? They key is what he comes with.

I'd rather stick with Vladar than have to watch that guy stink it up. Colorado can find someone else to dump him on.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Inferno

I'd rather stick with Vladar than have to watch that guy stink it up. Colorado can find someone else to dump him on.

Flames are going to lose either way. Why not get assets while doing so.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Flames are going to lose either way. Why not get assets while doing so.

I get they're going to lose more than they win. I'd just rather it not be with that guy stinking it up.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Why not? They key is what he comes with.

I wouldn't have an issue with bringing him in for next season as a cap dump as long as the Avs are adding more to the deal. Georgiev is only 28 so if he was to have a rebound season with the Flames, they could probably move him at the trade deadline for a team looking for goaltending insurance.