Craig Conroy and "The Dallas Model"

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by Saqe

Delusional to think the Flames will be a contender in three-four years, even if they hit with their picks. Those picks will take years of development and learning how to win. And even then if you have bad management, like the Oilers, nothing is guaranteed. The Panthers became a powerhouse nine years after drafting Barkov. It's a really long process when you are starting from scratch with no elite talent.

Exactly!
I’ve been saying it could be 7 years before we are even relevant again, I don’t think we are close to bottoming out yet.
Many here question the ownership’s commitment to the bottom out rebuild, I’ll flip the table and say if the ticket buying public is committed then ownership will back it for sure. You’d expect a lower payroll with butts in the seats, why wouldn’t they like it?

[CliffFletcher]

People like to cite the Sabres, Oilers, and Senators as teams that prove scorched earth rebuilds rarely work.

So let’s look at three teams who haven’t committed to rebuilds, which I’ll define as haven’t drafted top 3 in the last 15 years, have made the playoffs around half of those years, but haven’t played in a SCF:

Flames, Wild, Islanders.

Never really bad. Never really great. Just chugging along.

Are those three franchises more successful than the Sabres, Oilers, and Senators? Which group of teams would you bet produces a Cup winner first?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

People like to cite the Sabres, Oilers, and Senators as teams that prove scorched earth rebuilds rarely work.

So let’s look at three teams who haven’t committed to rebuilds, which I’ll define as haven’t drafted top 3 in the last 15 years, have made the playoffs around half of those years, but haven’t played in a SCF:

Flames, Wild, Islanders.

Never really bad. Never really great. Just chugging along.

Are those three franchises more successful than the Sabres, Oilers, and Senators? Which group of teams would you bet produces a Cup winner first?

I'm not looking for any of those six teams to produce a Cup winner in the foreseeable future.

[Roof-Daddy]

Last time the Flames started their rebuild in 2013

Year 1 - missed
Year 2 - made playoffs but it was an anomaly
Year 3 - missed
Year 4 - made playoffs as an under dog
Year 5 - missed
Year 6 - made the playoffs with 107 point season

So by year 6 it was a pretty solid rebuilt roster. We started that rebuild with Gaudreau already in the system in 2011 though, and he was the top scorer on the rebuilt roster.

Of course this rebuild "might" already have the future #1 goalie which would be a massive improvement on the last rebuild which never actually found a #1G until year 8.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

I'm not looking for any of those six teams to produce a Cup winner in the foreseeable future.

Maybe Columbus will, they have been rebuilding for awhile. Anaheim has missed the playoffs for 6 straight years, they have to be close to being good.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Maybe Columbus will, they have been rebuilding for awhile.

I imagine that depends very much on who ends up running the team.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Saqe

Delusional to think the Flames will be a contender in three-four years, even if they hit with their picks. Those picks will take years of development and learning how to win. And even then if you have bad management, like the Oilers, nothing is guaranteed. The Panthers became a powerhouse nine years after drafting Barkov. It's a really long process when you are starting from scratch with no elite talent.

It’s not, really. It becomes a long process when you make mistakes or miss on picks, and once it does the chances of becoming a cup winner go down significantly.

Like, let’s not pretend Florida was “learning how to win.”

They went from mediocre to contender because an elite young player wanted to be traded there.

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

People like to cite the Sabres, Oilers, and Senators as teams that prove scorched earth rebuilds rarely work.

So let’s look at three teams who haven’t committed to rebuilds, which I’ll define as haven’t drafted top 3 in the last 15 years, have made the playoffs around half of those years, but haven’t played in a SCF:

Flames, Wild, Islanders.

Never really bad. Never really great. Just chugging along.

Are those three franchises more successful than the Sabres, Oilers, and Senators? Which group of teams would you bet produces a Cup winner first?

The real anomaly in that group of teams is the Oilers. They should never be mentioned in any of these discussions. They are masters at destroying first overall picks and wasting talent

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

It’s not, really. It becomes a long process when you make mistakes or miss on picks, and once it does the chances of becoming a cup winner go down significantly.

Like, let’s not pretend Florida was “learning how to win.”

They went from mediocre to contender because an elite young player wanted to be traded there.

Won the Presidents trophy without Tkachuk, they weren't mediocre. Quenneville pushed them to elite.

Zero chance Calgary is a contender in 3-4 years. Zero. I've seen enough losing watching the Panthers to know there are no shortcuts when you have no elite talent at any position.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Saqe

Won the Presidents trophy without Tkachuk, they weren't mediocre. Quenneville pushed them to elite.

Zero chance Calgary is a contender in 3-4 years. Zero. I've seen enough losing watching the Panthers to know there are no shortcuts when you have no elite talent at any position.

How far did they get in the playoffs?

Saying “I watched a lot of Florida Panthers” doesn’t do much to bolster an opinion about rebuilds. Until MT they were basically an Edmonton/Buffalo.

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

How far did they get in the playoffs?

Saying “I watched a lot of Florida Panthers” doesn’t do much to bolster an opinion about rebuilds. Until MT they were basically an Edmonton/Buffalo.

They didn't have Q in the playoffs. They had a rookie coach. Lol at being like Buffalo after winning the President's trophy.

[traptor]

3-4 year rebuild is possible but it's very unlikely.

We would 2-3 of the existing prospects in the system to become elite + Wolf being a legit #1, over the next 3 years.

It's possible just not likely
It does feel like the Flames are due to hit big on one of these mid 1sts eventually though.

Pretty much the rebuild will take as long as it takes us to find 2-3 stars.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

It’s not, really. It becomes a long process when you make mistakes or miss on picks, and once it does the chances of becoming a cup winner go down significantly.

Like, let’s not pretend Florida was “learning how to win.”

They went from mediocre to contender because an elite young player wanted to be traded there.

And Bobrovsky found his game.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by traptor

I mean in the same way that 4 quarters is a $1 and so is a looney.

The flames are great at drafting nickels and dimes. They need some loonies.

I think you get nickels and dimes when you are relying on less picks, and less high end picks.

But the value of a scouting staff is proven either way.

Up the pick inventory and that same group likely kills it.

And we will see soon!

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Not angry at all - just hearing Jiri make the same statement multiple time a week that the Flames are the 2nd best drafting team because of an article evaluating drafting players from 6-15 years ago that actually shows / states the Flames actually really suck at drafting in the first round and average in the 2nd, but hit in Adam Fox (a player who fell to his spot because teams knew he wouldn’t sign and didn’t want to waste a pick on him ) makes them “ a top drafting team “

They have drafted 1 superstar player in 30? years in MT who actually
Played for them and even that was 6th overall - higher then they will be drafting this year

But as long as the Athletic ranks us 2nd in value above replacement from 2010- 2018 and includes a player who never played and was never going to
Play for us I guess we have nothing to worry about !

It's a valid study.

It takes more weight than an angry hockey fan that wants to believe the worst.

Maybe the discussion would roll a little smoother if you dropped the pinnacle sarcasm.

[Rhett44]

There is no quick fix for this. Dallas had one of the best drafts ever, I think the goal of every team is to be successful like that each year.

What makes it a lot harder for us is that Dallas is a destination free agents want to go to. We have seen with some of our past players that Calgary is not exactly most players first choice destination to sign with.

Even if we have a few amazing drafts, it will take several years to reap the benefits. Few players are going to be ready to play at an NHL level right away.

[Macho0978]

A rebuild might take 3-5 years, we may not be a contender for at least 5. But we will have some fun players to watch much sooner than 5 years. People mention the Oilers or Buffalo or Ottawa. I personally would be ok to watch all three of those teams if the Flames had similar roster to what they have, and I would think most years going into the season you would be excited for the season even if the team ended up being disappointing.

Oilers are one of the top teams again this year and Buffalo and Ottawa are a good move or 2 away from being playoff teams. Flames aren't any better than that over the last decade.

[Fan69]

I find some if the takes here pretty interesting.

What does the team actually need is the question ?

No number one center but do have a long term top six wing and another thats in his prime but only has one more year. Sharangovich probably re signs. Huby isnt going anywhere.

Second line center long term one middle six wing. No real second line wing depends on where you think pospisil belongs.
You third line center only signed for one more year. Coleman bottom six wing long term.
Fourth line revolving door.

No clear number one defensmen have some depth but miromanov still looks green.

We need two centers and a number one defencemen.

By all accounts it looks like Markstrom is probably done. Eat bread probably the same. Goal will be a killer eat bread can be replaced internally.

Kadri probably stays, weegar, coleman, oliver probably resigns which leaves Anderson as the last big question. Sary hard to say exactly where he fits in but probably a middle six option.

Markstrom and Anderson could be used as the trade for a center. Add a reasonable top six center the team looks different. Maybe not great but competitive.

Needs 1 center.
3 center depending on backs staying ir going.
Roony fourth line center. .
Top six wing.
Clear 1 defencemen.

We have restocked some if the defensive depth will almost certainly pick one or two defencemen in this draft with our first four picks
My hope is to bag Catton, or one if the top defencemen with our top ten pick why i get so frustrated with this incessant need for everyone and their dog to have us draft a winger no matter what his name is.

Odds are a top ten finish next year the goaltending will be on and off no matter how many centers we have. Pick another top ten center next year, along with any trade options to get a young center.

This team could be good in three years very good in five. Yes some luck would apply. I just dont see a ten year timeline like some are suggesting.

Add a top six center and a top six top winger this is a different team

Yes those are hard pieces to find but not impossible. To me burning it down is happening as the players themselves will determine, for all we know kadri just got out of his meeting with conroy about being traded this summer.

Couple if years yes a decade ? Doubt it unless conroy completely falls on his face.

[Bingo]

I hope they don't rush it.

The team will be entertaining and on the upswing likely in 2-3 years. Enjoy that period of time and don't jump the shark to get them over the edge before they are ready organically.

[Robbob]

I know Dallas was singled out, and Jiri touched on it, but the model really is draft well and hitting on those players later players.

Dallas did it to an extreme in that one draft, but you can point at various teams that have found elite players or very good players outside of the top 10 (Boston, TB, CHI, LA). TB with Pointe and Kucherov, to me that is the other home run scenario where those later picks altered the franchise.

The odds are really not in your favour finding that player late, which is why scouting is key, but when you do it is the equivalent of adding a top 10 pick talent to your team.