Real estate in Calgary - another bubble?

[Winsor_Pilates]

Calgary condo prices will only go up if/when larger properties go high enough to pull the values up with them.
If housing supply gets limited enough and expensive enough, it has a trickle down effect on smaller property types.

I recently saw a snake graph showing condo prices in Calgary, Vancouver & Toronto from about 2005 onward, and it's crazy how close they were at one point before the 2 other markers took off & Calgary didn't.

[flamesfever]

It's interesting to look back a couple of years in this thread and read about what the posters were saying about purchasing condos. The general feeling was that they were a terrible investment because of things like poor condo boards, rising costs, special assessments, past history of stagnant and falling prices, etc. And yet, that was the time to buy.

I have always felt that one should always keep a little bit of a contrarian point of view, and avoid the herd mentality, especially when it comes to investing.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by accord1999

They're probably needed to meet City requirements for unit density in new communities.

Which is a dumb policy, IMO. Let people build their sprawl on the edges, just make sure road layouts and lot sizes support future densification.

Building condos out there means the low income people that buy them need to own and operate a car they can't afford for large distances or spend 3 hours on transit.

Instead, why not have some sort of density swaps where we get more inner city development/housing going where those people can thrive a bit more.

While we're at it, charge people out the ass ton for sitting on unbuilt land. The surface parking lots taking up space perfectly good housing could be occupying need to go.

[CliffFletcher]

Most Calgarians have kids by their mid 30s. And they have a strong preference for raising those kids in detached homes. There are only so many housing units you need for single people who can afford to buy but don’t have kids.

[I-Hate-Hulse]

Originally Posted by flamesfever

It's interesting to look back a couple of years in this thread and read about what the posters were saying about purchasing condos. The general feeling was that they were a terrible investment because of things like poor condo boards, rising costs, special assessments, past history of stagnant and falling prices, etc. And yet, that was the time to buy.

I have always felt that one should always keep a little bit of a contrarian point of view, and avoid the herd mentality, especially when it comes to investing.

I won't disagree there there was an arbitrage opportunity from say, 2021-2023, but all the negative fundamentals you mentioned are actually magnified in these times of inflationary and distrust of authority. Going long on Calgary condos has significant holding costs, which, as a few posts above me exemplifies - is a risky proposition.

[username]

Good news for buyers and sellers in the US. The NAR settlement is going to significantly drop the commissions realtors make, reducing the price of homes.


How long until such an agreement comes to Canada?

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by username

Good news for buyers and sellers in the US. The NAR settlement is going to significantly drop the commissions realtors make, reducing the price of homes.


How long until such an agreement comes to Canada?

We will probably see something come of it to Canada; but commission's are already about half in most Canadian markets compared to many US markets.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Most Calgarians have kids by their mid 30s. And they have a strong preference for raising those kids in detached homes. There are only so many housing units you need for single people who can afford to buy but don’t have kids.

I think this is a significant factor in the density discussions as well.

[chemgear]

Some interesting charts in the article too.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...ease-1.7210191

Calgary population surges by staggering 6%

Edmonton, meanwhile, added more than 63,000 people, marking a 4.2 per cent increase.

Calgary's metro-area population grew by nearly 96,000 people last year — a staggering six per cent increase in the span of just 12 months — according to new estimates released Wednesday by Statistics Canada.

Both cities have seen rapid population gains in the past but nothing like this in recent memory.

Calgary's growth rate of six per cent far exceeds its previous high of 3.5 per cent in 2006.

[Leondros]

Interesting that they are including Aidrie, Chestermere and Cochrane but not Okotoks…

Still, 1.7 million is quite crazy!

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Leondros

Interesting that they are including Aidrie, Chestermere and Cochrane but not Okotoks…

Still, 1.7 million is quite crazy!

Iirc it has to do with what % of people commute into the main city, and okotoks doesn't qualify by that metric.

I agree that if I was picking based on my impression of what is part of metro Calgary as a resident I'd include Okotoks. For example the Dawgs are widely considered Calgary's baseball team, imo.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Iirc it has to do with what % of people commute into the main city, and okotoks doesn't qualify by that metric.

Do you have a link to that?

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Some interesting charts in the article too.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...ease-1.7210191

Calgary population surges by staggering 6%

Edmonton, meanwhile, added more than 63,000 people, marking a 4.2 per cent increase.

Calgary's metro-area population grew by nearly 96,000 people last year — a staggering six per cent increase in the span of just 12 months — according to new estimates released Wednesday by Statistics Canada.

Both cities have seen rapid population gains in the past but nothing like this in recent memory.

Calgary's growth rate of six per cent far exceeds its previous high of 3.5 per cent in 2006.

Why are people moving to Moncton?

Are they being drawn there by Magnetic Hill?

It looks like a Tidal Bore of migration.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Do you have a link to that?

The IIRC part was me saying I didn't have a link - but I looked it up for you

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r....cfm?ID=geo009

To be included in the CMA or CA, other adjacent municipalities must have a high degree of integration with the core, as measured by commuting flows derived from data on place of work from the previous Census Program.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

The IIRC part was me saying I didn't have a link - but I looked it up for you:

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r....cfm?ID=geo009

Apologies I wasn't clear, do you have a link to the "Okotoks doesn't qualify" part.

Nearly everyone I know that lives in Okotoks works in Calgary

[Torture]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Most Calgarians have kids by their mid 30s. And they have a strong preference for raising those kids in detached homes. There are only so many housing units you need for single people who can afford to buy but don’t have kids.

*source required

[flamesfever]

Originally Posted by Torture

*source required

Are you saying you don't believe anything unless there has been a study to prove what you should believe. How about common sense?

A single detached house gives you a backyard for your kids to play in, trees to climb, more safety with less cars on the street, more freedom to build a fort, more privacy from the smell of other's cooking, etc.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Apologies I wasn't clear, do you have a link to the "Okotoks doesn't qualify" part.

Nearly everyone I know that lives in Okotoks works in Calgary

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...1&HEADERlist=0

Calgary, Census metropolitan area [Census metropolitan area]
Airdrie, City [Census subdivision]
Beiseker, Village [Census subdivision]
Calgary, City [Census subdivision]
Chestermere, City [Census subdivision]
Cochrane, Town [Census subdivision]
Crossfield, Town [Census subdivision]
Irricana, Town [Census subdivision]
Rocky View County, Municipal district [Census subdivision]
Tsuu T'ina Nation 145, Indian reserve [Census subdivision

Okotoks not included in the list from stats can. I agree it seems like it should be anecdotally.

[BlackArcher101]

Originally Posted by flamesfever

A single detached house gives you a backyard for your kids to play in, trees to climb, more safety with less cars on the street, more freedom to build a fort, more privacy from the smell of other's cooking, etc.

Weird, my semi-detached duplex does all of that too.

[cheevers]

Originally Posted by flamesfever

Are you saying you don't believe anything unless there has been a study to prove what you should believe. How about common sense?

A single detached house gives you a backyard for your kids to play in, trees to climb, more safety with less cars on the street, more freedom to build a fort, more privacy from the smell of other's cooking, etc.

Ha, have you driven in the burbs? That is where every idiot who can't drive congregates.