Mock Expansion Draft

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Hey all, since I'm only moderately interested in the remaining hockey playoffs, I figure I would start looking at the next big thing after the Stanley Cup...the expansion draft. Teams have been preparing for this for over a calendar year now, and it looks like most teams have a pretty good idea of who they're going to protect.

There are a LOT of free agents this year due to the draft, so I made sure that the player I drafted had a contract for next season, or under RFA status. Using CapFriendly's draft tool, I made protected lists for each team with my likely inadequate knowledge of each team's roster, but I did my best. They rule out all the players that are exempt from the draft for you. The tool forces you to pick one player from each team, and a minimum of 3 goalies, 9 defensemen, and 14 forwards. Obviously there are a few more than that if you pick 30 players, which makes me think that there will be a couple of trades as a result of the draft.

I focused on younger good players where available, and key veterans who are good both ways to maintain some stability. Drafting players from some teams was extremely difficult (Vancouver, Dallas, and New Jersey specifically). There was just nobody really all the good available on those teams.

Here's the list of teams with the player I drafted from each team:

Anaheim-Sami Vatanen
Arizona-Luke Schenn
Boston-Adam McQuaid
Buffalo-Matt Moulson
Calgary-Troy Brouwer
Carolina-Lee Stempniak
Chicago-Trevor Van Riemsdyk
Colorado-Calvin Pickard
Columbus-Matt Calvert
Dallas-Curtis McKenzie
Detroit-Jimmy Howard
Edmonton-Mark Letestu
Florida-Mark Pysyk
L.A.-Nick Shore
Minnesota-Jonas Brodin
Montreal-Torrey Mitchell
Nashville-Colin Wilson
New Jersey-Jon Merrill
NYI-Calvin De Haan
NYR-Michael Grabner
Ottawa-Zack Smith
Philadelphia-Matt Read
Pittsburgh-Ian Cole
San Jose-Jannik Hansen
St. Louis-Dmitrij Jaskin
Tampa Bay-Vladislav Namestnikov
Toronto-Kerby Rychel
Vancouver-Luca Sbisa
Washington-Philip Grubauer
Winnipeg-Joel Armia

The team is cap compliant with about $8 million to spare. That means they could feasibly add a couple of free agents to the forward group should they feel so inclined. Judging by the defense you see below, I'd be shocked to see Engelland get signed in Vegas. His best bet would be getting re-signed by the Flames.


Here's my best guess for the lines:

Moulson-Namestnikov-Grabner
Wilson-Smith-Hansen
Read-Letestu-Stempniak
Calvert-Mitchell-Brouwer
Shore/Jaskin

De Haan-Vatanen
Brodin-Van Riemsdyk
Cole-Pysyk/Schenn/McQuaid (whoever you want)

Howard-Pickard

Minors: Armia, Rychel, McKenzie, Sbisa, Merrill, Schenn, Grubauer


I think the defense is above average, and the goaltending is solid, but not amazing. The forwards have great depth, but horrible top end talent.

Thoughts? Who would you have picked from each roster instead? Where does this team rank in the NHL? Does it have a chance to make the playoffs?

Argh....I was about to publish it and my browser crashed, so I can't provide the link to it any longer.

Edit: Ok, I re-did it all. Here's the link. https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/56823

[Roof-Daddy]

Minors: Armia, Rychel, McKenzie, Sbisa, Merrill, Schenn, Grubauer

This is where it gets real interesting.

Using your mock as an example, none of these players likely pass through waivers, so look for players of this caliber to be available via trades.

Flames for instance would be all over Grubauer/Pickard as well as Schenn for the 3rd pairing right side D.

In another thread I was questioning someone who said they wouldn't qualify Rittich. They figured he didn't have a spot in the Flames org next year. Well since Rittich doesn't require waivers they could probably flip him and a pick for Pickard/Grubauer in this case.


Going to be a crazy off-season, that's for sure.

[icecube]

You would think that Ducks, Wild and Isles find a way to keep Vatanen, Brodin and De Haan respectively.

[Roof-Daddy]

Also, you are right about Engelland probably not getting much interest from Vegas. They are likely to have a pretty decent D core after the dust settles, and will probably have excess 4-7 Dmen that they will be looking to trade for picks and prospects.

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Minnesota-Jonas Brodin

Really?

[Love]

Who do you have Minnesota protecting defensively? I think they have too many valuable forwards to go the 4-4-1 route, so in the 7-3-1. I think they expose Scandella and Spurgeon, and protect Suter, Dumba and Brodin.

[Robbob]

I think you took on to much money. I think they will want to keep a bit more for free agents. They have to get to around 50 million from the draft right?

[BACKCHECK!!!]

The players who show up on lists like this are the guys Treliving should be making low-ball offers for.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by icecube

You would think that Ducks, Wild and Isles find a way to keep Vatanen, Brodin and De Haan respectively.

The Wild have too many good forwards to leave unprotected in a 4-4-1 system. Giving up 1 good defenseman to save 3 more good forwards in a 7-3-1 system just makes sense. The Isles might decide to do the 4-4-1, but it's probably a 50/50 decision, and I don't think they'd lose sleep over losing de Haan.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by icecube

You would think that Ducks, Wild and Isles find a way to keep Vatanen, Brodin and De Haan respectively.

Ducks are screwed unless they trade Vatanen away. Even with Bieksa reportedly willing to waive his NMC (another reason to hate that guy as a Flames fan) they still have 4 very good young Dmen to protect

Lindholm
Fowler
Manson
Vatanen

Also, they can't go with the 8-1 option or they risk they'd have to expose one of Rackell or Silverberg.

The Wild have 5 D they need to protect, so they will lose a good Dman no matter what. If it isn;t Brodin it will be Dumba, Scandella or Spurgeon. All legit top 4 Dmen.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Robbob

I think you took on to much money. I think they will want to keep a bit more for free agents. They have to get to around 50 million from the draft right?

Interestingly, most of these contracts expire in 2018. Only a few players are signed long term.

Plus, you don't want to ice the crappiest product ever. If you have access to better players, pick them up. It's short term anyways and they can restructure quickly in a year or two.

I don't think it makes sense to draft the bargain bin players, and then hope that you get some quality players in free agency.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Love

Who do you have Minnesota protecting defensively? I think they have too many valuable forwards to go the 4-4-1 route, so in the 7-3-1. I think they expose Scandella and Spurgeon, and protect Suter, Dumba and Brodin.

Minny protects on D:

Suter (26 mins avg, 40 points)
Spurgeon (24 mins avg, 38 points)

Then one of:

Dumba (20 mins avg, 34 points)
Brodin (19 mins avg, 29 points)


They are losing one of their two youngsters unless they trade one before the exp draft, same as the Ducks.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Minny protects on D:

Suter (26 mins avg, 40 points)
Spurgeon (24 mins avg, 38 points)

Then one of:

Dumba (20 mins avg, 34 points)
Brodin (19 mins avg, 29 points)


They are losing one of their two youngsters unless they trade one before the exp draft, same as the Ducks.

Exactly. When I was setting up protected lists I was going back and forth between scenarios, and it made NO sense to do a 4-4-1 for these teams too. It sucks short term, and while these defensemen are talented, they're not top 20 defensemen in the league or anything either.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Interestingly, most of these contracts expire in 2018. Only a few players are signed long term.

Plus, you don't want to ice the crappiest product ever. If you have access to better players, pick them up. It's short term anyways and they can restructure quickly in a year or two.

I think Brouwer is the big one. If I was Vegas, I would take a flier on one of younger players available on calgary. I would rather use te extra cap space on a free agent.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Robbob

I think Brouwer is the big one. If I was Vegas, I would take a flier on one of younger players available on calgary. I would rather use te extra cap space on a free agent.

My thought is they will want a guy they can possibly name as captain while the team identity gets sorted out. Brouwer can do that job on an expansion team, and there's little else to choose from for leadership players. Who else are you going to make captain, Matt Moulson?

McPhee is very familiar with Brouwer and I think he'd take him over a guy like Stajan or Shinkaruk for lots of different reasons.

Also, I'm just really hoping he takes Brouwer for selfish reasons.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Does anyone else want to give CapFriendly's expansion tool a try? I'm honestly curious to see some different outcomes from another person's perspective. Maybe if enough people do this there can be a consensus as to which players are likely to be taken.

[foshizzle11]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Does anyone else want to give CapFriendly's expansion tool a try? I'm honestly curious to see some different outcomes from another person's perspective. Maybe if enough people do this there can be a consensus as to which players are likely to be taken.

I'll take a crack at it and see how it goes! I'll post this morning at some point.

[Roof-Daddy]

What's the deal with Winnipeg's protection list?

Is Enstrom going to waive his NMC?

If not they're gonna lose Myers.

EDIT: I guess they could go 8-1 and protect 4 D

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

What's the deal with Winnipeg's protection list?

Is Enstrom going to waive his NMC?

If not they're gonna lose Myers.

EDIT: I guess they could go 8-1 and protect 4 D

I actually went the 4-4-1 route with them because of their defense situation.

Scheifele, Wheeler, Little, Perreault, Byfuglien, Enstrom, Myers, Trouba, Hellebuyck.

It leaves some ok forwards open, but nobody that is vital: Armia, Dano, Matthias...there really isn't a lot to miss in their forwards after those guys. Remember that Ehlers and Laine are exempt from the draft, as well as Petan, Connor, Morrissey etc.

[Roof-Daddy]

Quickly did one up.

ANA - D - Josh Manson
ARI - D - Luke Schenn
BOS - F - Matt Beleskey
BUF - F - Nic Deslauries
CGY - F - Troy Brouwer
CAR - F - Lee Stempniak
CHI - F - Marcus Krueger
COL - G - Calvin Pickard
CLB - D - Jack Johnson
DAL - F - Curtis McKenzie
DET - F - Riley Sheahan
EDM - F - Benoit Pouliot
FLA - D - Mark Pysyk
LAK - D - Brayden McNabb
MIN - D - Jonas Brodin
MON - F - Torrey Mitchell
NAS - F - Colin Wilson
NJD - D - Jon Merrill
NYI - D - Calvin DeHaan
NYR - G - Antti Raanta
OTT - F - Zach Smith
PHI - F - Micheal Raffl
PIT - G - Marc Andre Fleury
SJS - D - David Schlemko
STL - F - Dmitrij Jaskin
TBL - F - Vladislav Namestnikov
TOR - D - Martin Marincin
VAN - D - Erik Gudbranson
WAS - G - Philipp Grubauer
WIN - F - Adam Lowry


Pouliot - Wilson - Brouwer
Beleskey - Smith - Stempniak
Namestnikov - Krueger - Jaskin
Raffl - Lowry - Mitchell
Deslauries - Sheahan - McKenzie

Johnson - Manson
Brodin - Gudbranson
DeHaan - Schenn
Schlemko - McNabb
Marincin - Pysyk
Merrill

Fleury
Raanta
Grubauer
Pickard