03-27-2015, 02:09 PM
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#101
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#1 Goaltender
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Well I just bought a house unseen for 6k over list price with multiple offers less then 24 hours on the market. Looks like people are still buying houses!
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03-27-2015, 02:20 PM
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#102
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RealtorŪ
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Calgary
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6k more than asking - not necessarily more than true value
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03-28-2015, 02:06 AM
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#103
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Draft Pick
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Realtor 1
6k more than asking - not necessarily more than true value
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Considering the big ass housing bubble, that's highly unlikely....
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03-28-2015, 03:36 PM
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#104
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RealtorŪ
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Calgary
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I don't mean to come across the wrong way, but... considering you know nothing of the situation it seems like a very bold statement to make
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03-28-2015, 06:38 PM
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#105
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Draft Pick
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Realtor 1
I don't mean to come across the wrong way, but... considering you know nothing of the situation it seems like a very bold statement to make
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On the contrary that is not a bold, but a very easy statement to make. Think of what I'm saying here.
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03-28-2015, 10:35 PM
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#106
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Self Imposed Exile
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JRW
On the contrary that is not a bold, but a very easy statement to make. Think of what I'm saying here.
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In this discussion, and online in general, it can be very hard to tell when someone is being sarcastic.
I would advise you to just spell out your position.
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The Following User Says Thank You to Kavvy For This Useful Post:
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03-29-2015, 01:06 PM
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#107
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Field near Field, AB
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JRW resident housing bubble expert. If there's a bubble he'll solely defy the market and pop it.
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03-29-2015, 02:04 PM
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#108
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Draft Pick
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kavvy
In this discussion, and online in general, it can be very hard to tell when someone is being sarcastic.
I would advise you to just spell out your position.
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I'm surprised this needs to be spelled out;
It is generally accepted by many analysts, banks, economists etc. that there is a 30 to 60% housing bubble in Canada.
HENCE it is unlikely, impossible I would say to get a fair price for a house in this market. Realtor1 was talking about true value; no houses are selling for their true value currently, especially in Calgary.
When and if the bubble bursts, then he might honestly start using that term.
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03-29-2015, 05:43 PM
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#109
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RealtorŪ
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Calgary
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comical
Said economists, banks, analysts, etc have also been saying this for years and years and years.
It is not for me to say if there is a bubble or not but true value is what that home is worth today, not what some crystal ball predicts it to be worth in 5 years.
If said economists, banks, analysts, etc have held true to their belief in this bubble, they have most likely been renting for at least 5 years. Add up all those rent payments and they could have owned, experienced the bubble and would still have come out on top.
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03-29-2015, 06:44 PM
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#110
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Self Imposed Exile
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JRW
I'm surprised this needs to be spelled out;
It is generally accepted by many analysts, banks, economists etc. that there is a 30 to 60% housing bubble in Canada.
HENCE it is unlikely, impossible I would say to get a fair price for a house in this market. Realtor1 was talking about true value; no houses are selling for their true value currently, especially in Calgary.
When and if the bubble bursts, then he might honestly start using that term.
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I have seen many reports of a 15-20% bubble in the Canadian economy, however:
If it is "Generally accepted by many analysts, banks, economists etc" that there is a 30 to 60% bubble , please provide a few links to back this up from different respectable institutions and economists showing a greater then 50% expected drop? A respectable economists isn't "Mr Joe who runs a blog" but someone who has appeared in/on a major news outlook, or someone you can provide credentials for.
Last edited by Kavvy; 03-29-2015 at 07:44 PM.
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03-30-2015, 09:04 AM
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#111
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#1 Goaltender
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Realtor 1
comical
Said economists, banks, analysts, etc have also been saying this for years and years and years.
It is not for me to say if there is a bubble or not but true value is what that home is worth today, not what some crystal ball predicts it to be worth in 5 years.
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Don't forget if we believed what all Analysts say we would have $200 oil right now and housing would be even more expensive in this city.
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The Following User Says Thank You to fundmark19 For This Useful Post:
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03-30-2015, 10:11 AM
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#112
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Lifetime Suspension
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Yes the analysts have been wrong with timing this As have many people, including me. They did not account for the BOC dropping prime from 4.25% to 1% when the US bubble was bursting. It saved Canada as the big crash was turned to merely a blip on the screen. Can they do that again?
Travis, not sure if you were in the business of selling houses back in 08. You do appear to be very young so I am assuming that you haven't experienced a down market yet. If all you have seen is the last few years of best RE boom this province has ever seen then I can see why you'd have the opinions you have. It's easy to get caught up.
30% of buyers have been missing since January. Expect more as the layoffs are felt across all sectors of the economy in the months ahead. Hard to be optimistic.
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03-30-2015, 12:07 PM
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#113
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RealtorŪ
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Red
Yes the analysts have been wrong with timing this As have many people, including me. They did not account for the BOC dropping prime from 4.25% to 1% when the US bubble was bursting. It saved Canada as the big crash was turned to merely a blip on the screen. Can they do that again?
Travis, not sure if you were in the business of selling houses back in 08. You do appear to be very young so I am assuming that you haven't experienced a down market yet. If all you have seen is the last few years of best RE boom this province has ever seen then I can see why you'd have the opinions you have. It's easy to get caught up.
30% of buyers have been missing since January. Expect more as the layoffs are felt across all sectors of the economy in the months ahead. Hard to be optimistic.
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I was a Realtor in 2008.... I have experienced the downs.
Oddly enough, certain realtors can actually strive when the market is down. All of the part time or think it is quick easy money Realtors fade really quick when the market heads south. This opens the door for plenty of potential new clients who lost their overnight Realtor. While there are less transactions taking place than a up market, there are less Realtors to facilitate the transactions that do go on.
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03-30-2015, 01:31 PM
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#114
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Lifetime Suspension
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Realtor 1
I was a Realtor in 2008.... I have experienced the downs.
Oddly enough, certain realtors can actually strive when the market is down. All of the part time or think it is quick easy money Realtors fade really quick when the market heads south. This opens the door for plenty of potential new clients who lost their overnight Realtor. While there are less transactions taking place than a up market, there are less Realtors to facilitate the transactions that do go on.
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That was more like a short slow down more than a down market. This is why our opinions differ. I have seen the early 90s and even the not so hot early 00s. It was very hard to sell a house then. People get turned off RE in a hurry when their jobs are not secure.
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03-30-2015, 04:55 PM
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#115
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Calgary
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I'm just glad I didn't listen to all that housing bubble talk back in 08. I wouldn't be in the position i'm in right now if I had. Went and bought a house anyway and got some appreciation and equity out of it.
Last edited by stampsx2; 03-30-2015 at 04:58 PM.
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03-30-2015, 05:26 PM
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#116
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Draft Pick
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Realtor 1
comical
Said economists, banks, analysts, etc have also been saying this for years and years and years.
It is not for me to say if there is a bubble or not but true value is what that home is worth today, not what some crystal ball predicts it to be worth in 5 years.
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What I find comical is discounting something simply because it last a long time. Great logic there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Realtor 1
If said economists, banks, analysts, etc have held true to their belief in this bubble, they have most likely been renting for at least 5 years. Add up all those rent payments and they could have owned, experienced the bubble and would still have come out on top.
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Really?? Ok let's runs some fairly average numbers to see if they really would be ahead IF the bubble bursts and they have to sell before the market creates another bubble (if ever). Lets use your assumption of 5 years.
Rent house for 5 years at $1800/month: $108 000
Buy house, 500k house, 200k down, assume interest rate 2.6% for 5 years.
30% reduction in asset value, just by itself = $150 000. So right away your costs are much more than just renting.
Additional costs of owning:
Property taxes $3500/year = $17 500
Servicing 300k loan = $36 000
House maintenance 2000/year = $10 000
Home owners insurance 1000/year = $5000
Total cost of owning = $218 500
I don't think that's called "coming out on top"
Obviously you have a pretty strong bias, but then again I hardly expect a realtor to be an objective source on this matter.
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03-30-2015, 05:38 PM
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#117
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First Line Centre
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Some of your numbers are a bit funny though like renting for $1800 should be at least $2500 for that house.
I've built a very comprehensive spreadsheet that I've been valuing properties with, to get an input (1 time charges and down payment) , monthly input (monthly average of insurance, utilities, prop tax, mortgage payments, etc) less equity returned. What I am left with is a number to compare to the local rentals in the neighbourhood. Then I ask if it is a large enough difference to justify investing all of the down payment for.
To me, in the areas I look at, the number is close to justify a home purchase, but I haven't found a place that I like enough.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JRW
What I find comical is discounting something simply because it last a long time. Great logic there.
Really?? Ok let's runs some fairly average numbers to see if they really would be ahead IF the bubble bursts and they have to sell before the market creates another bubble (if ever). Lets use your assumption of 5 years.
Rent house for 5 years at $1800/month: $108 000
Buy house, 500k house, 200k down, assume interest rate 2.6% for 5 years.
30% reduction in asset value, just by itself = $150 000. So right away your costs are much more than just renting.
Additional costs of owning:
Property taxes $3500/year = $17 500
Servicing 300k loan = $36 000
House maintenance 2000/year = $10 000
Home owners insurance 1000/year = $5000
Total cost of owning = $218 500
I don't think that's called "coming out on top"
Obviously you have a pretty strong bias, but then again I hardly expect a realtor to be an objective source on this matter.
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03-30-2015, 06:16 PM
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#118
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JRW
What I find comical is discounting something simply because it last a long time. Great logic there.
Really?? Ok let's runs some fairly average numbers to see if they really would be ahead IF the bubble bursts and they have to sell before the market creates another bubble (if ever). Lets use your assumption of 5 years.
Rent house for 5 years at $1800/month: $108 000
Buy house, 500k house, 200k down, assume interest rate 2.6% for 5 years.
30% reduction in asset value, just by itself = $150 000. So right away your costs are much more than just renting.
Additional costs of owning:
Property taxes $3500/year = $17 500
Servicing 300k loan = $36 000
House maintenance 2000/year = $10 000
Home owners insurance 1000/year = $5000
Total cost of owning = $218 500
I don't think that's called "coming out on top"
Obviously you have a pretty strong bias, but then again I hardly expect a realtor to be an objective source on this matter.
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So you're saying it's better not to buy because this time the housing bubble may burst? You should re do those same numbers if the bubble didn't burst and see who comes out ahead.
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03-30-2015, 06:21 PM
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#119
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Self Imposed Exile
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Calgary
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edit nm
Last edited by Kavvy; 03-30-2015 at 10:57 PM.
Reason: bahhh
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03-30-2015, 06:25 PM
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#120
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Field near Field, AB
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I thought single bedroom apartments were like $1250 to $1500. Where can you rent a house for 500k for 1800? $2500 would be the minimum.
While your equation is bias, it assumes a static point or a low point in the market place. The economy picks up pace and the value of the house is restored over time.
Meanwhile if you which to change your situation you can sell your house for the loss and buy something else for the same loss for that static moment in time.
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