[News] Jarome Iginla "only" a 105% chance of making HHOF

[CroFlames]

This is a bit of an interesting article on SN today regarding the chances of current high profile players making the HHOF. I think the especially nerdy stats guys will find the regression formula interesting.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/w...-hall-of-fame/

Jagr, for comparison sake has a 278%. Stamkos after only 506 games played has a 70% chance of making the Hall.

Slow news day besides the Flint thing.

[tvp2003]

Jagr's numbers don't even include three seasons in the KHL (adding another 146 points) between 2008-2011. Mind bottling.

[Oil Stain]

There are more skaters than the ones listed in the table with an above 50% chance to make the hall.

Toews for instance has a 1376% chance of making the Hall of Fame.

[Locke]

So you're saying 'theres a chance?'

[mrkajz44]

Maybe for the gear grinder thread, but there is no such thing as a 278% chance at something.

I think I head someone talk about this on the FAN once. There was a formula and if you were over 100 you were in for sure, so I'm guessing they just used this formula thing. I don't think its actually supposed to be used as a percentage thing though. For example, someone with a 90 rating has virtually no shot of getting in.

[Komskies]

Rank	Player	                G/A
1.	Gordie Howe*	        925
2.	Jaromir Jagr	        832
3.	Wayne Gretzky*	        758
4.	Teemu Selanne	        741
5.	Brett Hull*	        738
6.	Jarome Iginla	        705
7.	Brendan Shanahan*	672
8.	Phil Esposito*	        671
9.	Maurice Richard*	653
10.	Luc Robitaille*	        652
11.	Bobby Hull*	        644
 	Steve Yzerman*	        644
13.	Joe Sakic*	        643
14.	Mark Messier*	        628
15.	Mario Lemieux*	        616
16.	Marcel Dionne*	        610
17.	Mike Gartner*	        609
18.	Dave Andreychuk	        605
19.	Alex Ovechkin	        602
20.	Mats Sundin*	        599

If you want to make a case for Iggy making the HHOF (which isn't necessary as he will guaranteed make it in), all you have to do is take a look at the all-time Era adjusted NHL goal scoring leaders. There's Iggy, 6th place all-time, ahead of some of the best players to ever play the game. Players marked with an asterisk are already in the HHOF.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

There are more skaters than the ones listed in the table with an above 50% chance to make the hall.

Toews for instance has a 1376% chance of making the Hall of Fame.

And so he should. Probably the best player of our generation.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Locke

And so he should. Probably the best player of our generation.

You're selling him short

1. Toews



2. Gretzky
3. Orr
4. Lemieux
5. Howe

[East Coast Flame]

Seems pretty biased towards forwards - no goalies or defense on the list.

For defense - Chara is a lock. Keith, Suter and Weber probably will get in. Karlsson and Subban more than likely will unless something drastic happens.

Goalies - Lundqvist and Luongo probably get in. Still early for Price, but he probably makes it.

[troutman]

Has there ever been a winner of the Hart trophy that didn't make the HOF?

[East Coast Flame]

Originally Posted by troutman

Has there ever been a winner of the Hart trophy that didn't make the HOF?

Well we all know Iggy won it, but "technically" Jose Theodore. Lindros too, but he will probably get in.

[jar_e]

Originally Posted by Komskies

Rank    Player                    G/A
1.    Gordie Howe*            925
2.    Jaromir Jagr            832
3.    Wayne Gretzky*            758
4.    Teemu Selanne            741
5.    Brett Hull*            738
6.    Jarome Iginla            705
7.    Brendan Shanahan*    672
8.    Phil Esposito*            671
9.    Maurice Richard*    653
10.    Luc Robitaille*            652
11.    Bobby Hull*            644
     Steve Yzerman*            644
13.    Joe Sakic*            643
14.    Mark Messier*            628
15.    Mario Lemieux*            616
16.    Marcel Dionne*            610
17.    Mike Gartner*            609
18.    Dave Andreychuk            605
19.    Alex Ovechkin            602
20.    Mats Sundin*            599

If you want to make a case for Iggy making the HHOF (which isn't necessary as he will guaranteed make it in), all you have to do is take a look at the all-time Era adjusted NHL goal scoring leaders. There's Iggy, 6th place all-time, ahead of some of the best players to ever play the game. Players marked with an asterisk are already in the HHOF.

If Mike Gartner, who never won a single NHL award, played in the Stanley Cup finals, or was even never name an All-Star, can be named into the HHOF, Iginla should be a shoe in.

Edit: missed the era adjusted stat.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by jar_e

If Mike Gartner, who never won a single NHL award, played in the Stanley Cup finals, or was even never name an All-Star, can be named into the HHOF, Iginla should be a shoe in.

Mike Gartner scored over 700 goals. Those other things you mentioned don't matter compared to that. Bernie Federko would be a much better example of why Iginla is a shoe in.

[jar_e]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Mike Gartner scored over 700 goals. Those other things you mentioned don't matter compared to that. Bernie Federko would be a much better example of why Iginla is a shoe in.

Those stats were era adjusted which caused some confusion at first glance.

Iginla will most likely past Ciccarelli, Bobby Hull, and possibly Joe Sakic this season to put him 15th overall in goals and in the 620 mark.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by troutman

Has there ever been a winner of the Hart trophy that didn't make the HOF?

Tommy Anderson (1941-42), Al Rollins (1953-54), Eric Lindros (1994-95).

Jose Theodore (2001-02) and Martin St. Louis (2003-04) are retired but not yet eligible.

[You Need a Thneed]

I'm not sure I understand the methodology, but As of right now, Iggy is an absolute lock.

If Iggy never player another game, he'd be on 100% of ballots in his first year.

Crosby and Ovechkin are ahead of him in this article, but if either of them never played another game, likely neither of them would get in - and at the very leat neither of them is anywhere near a lock. Ultimately they will both get in - becasue they both have a number of good years to go in all likelihood.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by jar_e

Those stats were era adjusted which caused some confusion at first glance.

Iginla will most likely past Ciccarelli, Bobby Hull, and possibly Joe Sakic this season to put him 15th overall in goals and in the 620 mark.

I bet he'll finish around 670 goals, which would put him at 12th all time (Ovechkin will pass him eventually though). He may even have an outside shot at 700 goals the way he's going, and a spot inside the top 10. That would be a amazing considering he lost about 60 goals due to lockouts and played in the heart of the dead puck era.

[N-E-B]

Originally Posted by Locke

And so he should. Probably the best player of our generation.

Toews is an incredible player and leader and very deserving of the Hall of Fame. He is not the best player of our generation.

[Flash Walken]

They should probably just put Iginla in now like they did with Pronger.

If Iginla retires at the end of his contract, who is he likely going up against for Hall of Fame induction?

Would he get in on the first ballot he is eligible for? If I was voting, yes, but is that how the committee will see it?

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

I'm not sure I understand the methodology, but As of right now, Iggy is an absolute lock.

If Iggy never player another game, he'd be on 100% of ballots in his first year.

Crosby and Ovechkin are ahead of him in this article, but if either of them never played another game, likely neither of them would get in - and at the very leat neither of them is anywhere near a lock. Ultimately they will both get in - becasue they both have a number of good years to go in all likelihood.

If you think about it though, Federov is in the Hall and Ovi tied him for goals the other day. (He actually beat him, but his goal was called back on an iffy coach's challenge).

If Federov is in the Hall, Ovi should be too (if he retires this instant).