[CP Story] Calgarypuck Schedule Analyzer (Updated)

[Bingo]

Looks into degree of difficulty for each team based on home and road games, then shows weighted average opposition for each category and a rank.

Flames race is below with principal teams.

[Street Pharmacist]

Awesome Bingo! Winnipeg is in tough on the road with an average opponent win% of almost .700. That's nuts. Calgary's remaining home games are a breeze, but most of those are going to be in March, so I expect a decent slide here in February, with the club pulling it out in March

[Chingas]

Can someone please translate this for me? Is this good? Bad? Help...

[Bingo]

Some notes

You want a high ranking and a low percentage.

The Flames have the 6th hardest road schedule going in the 30 team league because the average win percentage of their opponents on home ice in those road games is .635. Yikes.

The Flames home schedule is the 10th easiest (ranked 21st hardest), because teams invading the dome are basically just .500 on average on the road.

The table suggests the Flyers could make some noise too.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Chingas

Can someone please translate this for me? Is this good? Bad? Help...

The win% displayed is the for the opponents for the team listed on the left. He broke it down by home/away/total.

For instance of you look up Winnipeg on the road, the opponents they'll face have a combined almost .700 win%. That means they have nothing but incredibly tough teams to beat. Flames at home face fairly easy teams with a combined .503 win%

[Journey17]

So means if we continue to be a good road team then we are in good shape as our home games should be padding our win total! Thanks Bingo for the analysis. Maybe to be helpful, include a legend that says blue/green is easy, red is hard and yellow is neutral?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Journey17

So means if we continue to be a good road team then we are in good shape as our home games should be padding our win total! Thanks Bingo for the analysis. Maybe to be helpful, include a legend that says blue/green is easy, red is hard and yellow is neutral?

Good idea!

For now the legend is:

Top Table
Blue is good in that you are playing an average set of bad teams
Red is bad as you are facing an average of very tough teams

Bottom Traffic Lights
Red is bad, tough schedule ranking
Yellow is neutral, average schedule ranking
Green is great, easier schedule

[Imported_Aussie]

So reading into this, one would favour the Canucks to grab 2nd in the pacific, then it to be a 3 way fight between Calgary, San Jose and LA for the final spot in the division, then into the wildcard battle with a slumping Winnipeg. Heck, with how hard the central teams' runs are, could 5 Pacific teams make it in?

A thought occurs though - playing teams that have good records at the end of the season, when they may have less to play for (if seeding is more settled) - is that really going to be as difficult as we think?

[Bingo]

This will be fun to watch going forward as I update.

When the Flames finish the upcoming 4 game homestand their likely to have a top 5 worst schedule remaining.

Similarly when they return from that 7 game road trip they will probably move into the easier half of schedules.

[Street Pharmacist]

Minnesota also plays 5 back to backs with travel. The average teams win% drops about 4-6% in those games and the reverse for the home team.
On the flip side, Vancouver hosts at least 6 more road teams on the second night of a back to back (Winnipeg, San Jose, Dallas, Toronto, Columbus, Colorado, )

[hummdeedoo]

Originally Posted by Imported_Aussie

A thought occurs though - playing teams that have good records at the end of the season, when they may have less to play for (if seeding is more settled) - is that really going to be as difficult as we think?

Yeah - It's a good question. Are the good teams taking it easy and resting some players and playing backups or are they wanting to keep their momentum going?

[Finger Cookin]

Really cool analysis. Thanks for this.

[Bingo]

http://www.calgarypuck.com/calgarypu...edule-tracker/

Included the chart in an updated version of our old schedule tracker.

[heep223]

How important is this 7 game eastern swing? Sheesh. If we can get through that with a .500 point percentage, I think we're playoff bound.

[Knalus]

Well. I read the title, and thought that Bingo was predicting a 2-10-15 result for the flames for the remainder of the year. Very uncharacteristically pessimistic from him, and an oddly high number of overtime losses. Then I realized it was the date, with "-" instead of "/".

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Chingas

Can someone please translate this for me? Is this good? Bad? Help...

Red - Stop
Yellow - Proceed With Caution
Green = Go

[BChockeyJunkie]

Originally Posted by heep223

How important is this 7 game eastern swing? Sheesh. If we can get through that with a .500 point percentage, I think we're playoff bound.

The Flames may need more than that....

28 games 33 points.

5 very tough games left before the East Road Trip, if we get 5 points in those games, it owuld leave the Flames needing 28points 23games . Then If we go 3-3-1 in the eastern trip that would leave Calgary needing 21 points in 16 games. Resulting in the team needing to go 10-5-1 in its remaining 16 games.

And the problem with that is, the end of the season is against teams we cant afford to lose to. We NEED to create room in the next 12 games for any potential L's to other teams in the race.

Obviously this is all determined off shooting for 96pts

[formulate]

Thanks Bingo, this is a really helpful snapshot.

To make a prediction, I calculated the 'expected value' for each team's remaining games, giving each a projected total based on performance up to this point and opponents remaining.

Home%/(Home%+OppRoad%) = Expected Home % (and the reverse for road)
Multiply each by the number of remaining games (separate for home and away), and taking into account that the average game is worth 2.24(ish) points....

Vancouver (2nd pacific) - 95.79
Calgary (3rd pacific) - 94.75
Winnipeg (1st wildcard) - 94.63
San Jose (2nd wildcard) - 93.31
Minnesota - 90.611
Los Angeles - 88.66
Dallas - 87.87
Colorado - 85.61

LA and Minny were hit hardest by some combination of poor road performance, lots of road games remaining, and tough road schedule left. Obviously there is nothing to say current performance will hold, but these projections give a pretty optimistic view for Flames fans, showing that the 92 point mark could get you in.

[Bingo]

Feb 17th update.

http://www.calgarypuck.com/2015/02/c...cker-feb-1715/

Good for the Flames as they have moved back to the 10th toughest schedule with the Sharks, Kings, Canucks and Bruins done in the last week.

Winnipeg remains worst, but all other teams save Vancouver have worse schedules.

[PeteMoss]

Well.. it sucks to be in the West based on that. A few East teams have tough schedules, but the West takes up most of the slots on the tough side.