2024 Toronto Blue Jays Season Thread

[Mr.Coffee]

Does anyone actually think the Jays will make the playoffs?

[browna]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Does anyone actually think the Jays will make the playoffs?

Not out of the question. Obviously their play on the field doesn't inspire much confidence, but a couple 3 or 4 game winning streaks or winning 2 of 3 and not losing 4 or 5 in a row very often isn't a hard ask.

There are 33 opponent series left. 26, 3 games series, one 2 game series and 5, 4 games series.

According Fangraphs, a 21.8% chance today.

Cutoff for third wildcard appears to be about 86 wins, to a record of 58 and 46 in remaining games could get it done. 12 games over .500 in the next 104 games isn't again, some monumental task given what this lineup should produce. 10 more measly runs in this first two months could have them 6 more wins and be 4 games over .500 and not 2 under and that would have them more or less right on pace for squeaking in and making the playoffs, as weak as that appears.

[Roof-Daddy]

I dunno, I wouldn't count on the Jays figuring things out, but they should be better than this.

On this date last year the Phillies were 25-32, had a -46 run differential and were 8 games back of Atlanta tied for last in the NL east.

They ended up winning 90 games and going to game 7 of the NL championship series.

There is always hope, or maybe the Jays just suck.

[KelVarnsen]

The 2023(and 2024) Phillies roster is better than the 2024 Jays roster. The Jays aren’t going to make the playoffs.

[browna]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I dunno, I wouldn't count on the Jays figuring things out, but they should be better than this.

On this date last year the Phillies were 25-32, had a -46 run differential and were 8 games back of Atlanta tied for last in the NL east.

They ended up winning 90 games and going to game 7 of the NL championship series.

There is always hope, or maybe the Jays just suck.

They have sucked to this point.

Some stark stats:

They've had 10, 1 run games. 2-8 is the record.

In 6 of those 8, 1 run loss games, they've had 2 or less runs.

Overall in 20 of their 30 losses they've had 2 runs or less.

If they instead had just 4 runs in each of those 20 games, instead of 2 or less, they'd have 6 more wins, and 3 other games would've had the game tied.

Even 3 runs instead of 2 or less, would have them with 2 more wins, and 4 other games tied.

Long story short, 16 measly runs, over 58 games, in the right games where they only had 2 or less runs in the game and lost, would have turned 6 of those 20 losses into wins.

16 more runs would still have them 19th in the league for runs scored instead of being tied for 24th with the 1/3 of a budget Oakland A's.