[Redliner]

It has to be either Glenn or Daryl.

We know it's not one of the women, based on Negan's comment that "He's taking it like a champ" after the first hit.

Rick and Carl are exempt. Negan wouldn't kill Rick because he knows Rick is the leader of the Alexandrian group and this whole performance is intended to intimidate the hell out of them so they will pay tribute to his group - plus he wants Rick to suffer for killing his people and for that to happen he needs him alive. The best way to do that would have been to off Carl, but his comment about cutting Carl's other eye out and feeding it to Rick if anyone moves indicates that Carl isn't the target either. So those two are in the clear...for now.

That leaves Daryl, Glenn, Abraham, Eugene, and Aaron. The show has been hyping Negan and how incredibly badass he is, and going on about how his arrival is going to fundamentally change the show. That means it has to be a significant death and I don't think Abraham, Eugene, or Aaron would be "big" enough to have the emotional impact they're looking for.

That leaves Glenn or Darryl. Both are established season one characters.

Darryl is the fan favourite who apparently doesn't exist in the comics so they can do anything they want with him storywise.

Glenn is the married father-to-be who is the compassionate "lead by example" guy that has become the moral compass of the group. We all know how well this show treats the characters who try to "stay good".

I think Glenn is done for. For reals this time. Like, really really.