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Old 08-24-2013, 01:34 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by ricardodw View Post
To me it passes the smell test.
Not really even that. There is WAAAAY more work to be done before this analysis may be considered useful.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ricardodw View Post
I had identified Cammalleri, Hudler, Tanguay and Cervenka as small skilled guys that did not play hard... bump people over, win puck battles.

The stats and my analysis support what I see when I watch the game.
Of course they do! But not necessarily because your analysis is an accurate projection of what happens in a game, much moreso because these are the things that you notice in the first place that have helped you to form your impression. Your analysis is an elaborate confirmation bias, but it is highly debatable whether it is an accurate measure of the outcome of the games.


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Originally Posted by ricardodw View Post
The RGI also provide me with a degree of comfort (hope) that Baertschi and Brodie will not be a grit liabilities as I had feared. It also helps me understand why some people are not enamoured with Glencross. He is not playing as consistently hard as he did 3-4 years ago. I have been stuck with the impression of him being a very gritty player. The RGI shows that he does indeed take too many nights off.
No, it really doesn't. It MAY show this IF you perform the same analysis for Glencross over each season of his career, which happens to result in a pattern or trend downwards. Even then, because Glencross's role on the team has changed from when he first joined the Flames, I suspect that your analysis is likely not showing a true relationship between his performance and the outcome of the games.

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Originally Posted by ricardodw View Post
It also shows that with so many non-gritty players the Oilers will not be successful. I felt this was their problem but the RGI off so many important players less than 1 is a useful illustration...
This, I tend to agree with, but not based on your statistical analysis itself. Moreso, my concern for the Oilers would be that in accordance with Justin Bourne's excellent article posted above, they appear to be a team that SHOULD be high in puck possession as opposed to puck pursuit, and yet they had abysmal results from the games played. This tells me that they are not at all successful in the type of game that they are attempting to play, and it is really difficult to see how they can or will improve on that with the collection of players that they have.
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