Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
I don't think you're understanding the service. It wouldn't work in rural areas, but it would work in Calgary just fine. At any point in time, there would be a car within 1 minute of where you are based on density and it would come for you. Think of it exactly like uber, but with exponentially more cars available and made more convenient by algorithms having placed them in more conveniently available areas. The car picks you up and drops you off as often as you like.
For example, after a hockey game there would be thousands of cars available at a set of pre determined areas. You hop in and go. You want to go to the mall at 3pm on a wednesday, you open the app, hail a car, and within a minute it's there. All for much lower than owning a car, because that one car transports about 5-10 times as many people as 1 car owned by a single owner.
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But according to the report, there would only be 10% of the vehicles on the road compared to now. He states that by 2030 in the US, 5.7 trillion passenger miles will be moved through 26 million autonomous cars. Right now there are 247 million vehicles on the road in the US. So, it would seem more like today's cab service.
The big thing for me in the report is that it relies on government banning internal combustion engines early in the adoption phase. He states that car dealerships will be completely done by 2024 and that by 2030 government will ban everyone from owning an autonomous car. We will all need to get a ride through autonomous fleets run by companies such as Uber, Google, and Apple. And the thing is, he's not just talking about the US. He is talking worldwide by 2030. I just don't see it happening by that time frame at all.