Quote:
Originally Posted by evman150
My riding (Victoria) is unfortunate. A poor Green candidate and a very vanilla NDP incumbent (former leader Carole James). Liberals should be a non-factor, though the weak Green candidate may pump up the Liberal vote tally. James will win by 25+ points.
Andrew Weaver (Green leader) will win Oak Bay-Gordon Head easily. If the signs voted, it'd be a landslide (most residential streets have nothing but Green signs). I think it will be.
Saanich North and the Islands might be the most interesting riding in the province. The three candidates were separated by only a couple hundred votes last time. With a strong Green candidate, I see them taking their second seat here.
Cowichan Valley is another strong spot for the Greens. I would expect them to win the seat somewhat handily.
The rest of the island should go NDP, with the possible exception of Esquimalt-Metchosin (high profile Liberal Barb Desjardins) and maybe one of the up island seats (Green or Liberal).
Here is my prediction:
NDP: 43
Liberal: 41
Green: 3
Also, a small piece of data that hasn't been mentioned is that the Greens have been leading on Vancouver Island in the last two Mainstreet polls. And for what it's worth the Green candidates on the island tend to be more qualified than those on the mainland.
|
That's an interesting prediction because it really gives a 3 seat party in this scenario a hugely powerful voice in the government.
If that does come to pass, I would expect that any kind of pipeline deal to tidewater will be delayed forever or outright killed in its infancy.
__________________
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
|