Quote:
Originally Posted by edslunch
I agree with the luck part. My issue - and I don't mean to pick on you because lots of people do it - is applying PDO to an individual player. Shooting percentage is already a perfectly good stat for measuring shooting percentage (I.e. Shooting luck). Mixing it with the goalie's save luck makes no sense for an individual player. If Bennett played in front of Cary Price and raised his PDO 20 points because of it does it make him a better shooter?
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Shooting percentage and save percentage do have some mutual causality though. If you are getting saves, teams start taking chances they won't take otherwise. If you are leading in a game it is easier to score off those chances than it is to score while trailing in games. On per-shift level, feeling that you will get a save will give a player like Bennett more comfort in trying to sauce a pass over that might have been a shot on goal otherwise. There is also the coach effect on deciding whether a line or pair is working. All the same mistakes but getting some saves can keep a line together until their shooting percentage normalizes, but no saves and it's to the bench and line blender.