Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post - This is the year for the Flames to prove they can graduate prospects from the AHL

Calgary4LIfe · 07-05-2017, 10:02 PM

I didn't notice Jooris on the OP - sorry if he was listed - but he counts as an AHL graduate. Hathaway is at that tipping point as well.

People do argue the case of being 'rushed' vs 'stagnated' regarding the AHL vs the NHL. Most people feel that the AHL is the development league, and that the NHL is where a player who is already developed gets to play in. I think that is mostly right, but not totally.

I think there is a certain threshold that needs to be reached regardless of any existing opportunities on the team. I believe there are 3 thresholds that a prospect needs to reach:

1) Do well enough in the AHL to earn a cup of coffee in the NHL

2) a point in time in their development that they can run a 10 game stretch of games in the NHL before fading

3) a point in time where a prospect can be sheltered enough to remain in the NHL and finish off developing

When I look at some of the prospects, few of them manage to get past the cup of coffee stage. I think Hathaway, Kulak, Wotherspoon and Shinakaruk are past this stage. Kulak, Wotherspoon and Shinkaruk seem to fade and end up regressing somewhat after a stretch of games. Hathaway is the one that I think can (and probably should) be given a long stretch.

Jankowski is an interesting one. I personally feel he is 'done' with his AHL time. Sure, he can learn more, but I honestly think that he is at a threshold that can handle an extended look at least, and his defensive acumen will help him from getting buried down the lineup (or 'over sheltered).

The NHL is very much a development league. We experienced it first hand with Backlund, Gaudreau, Monahan, Giordano, etc., etc., etc.. A player just has to reach that threshold where he is just past that tweener stage. Just an inch beyond tweener stage where he can get an extended look, and not start to consistently fade.

I don't necessarily think that the Flames have been terrible at it. I think what they suffered from the most was poor drafting (and sheer bad luck at times with injuries). For instance, I really thought Negrin was about to start entering the NHL years ago, but a blown knee ended his career. Pelech I thought was borderline serviceable on the bottom pairing, but injuries stalled him (without arguing if he was 1st round pick worthy or not is beside the point). I believe Sieloff suffered from way too many injuries taking away from his development.

I do see some instances of troubling red flags. Morrison was probably the very best right after he got signed, and then he started regressing. That's a troubling red flag for me. There are other examples as well.

However, I also think that now with many more picks in the last few years and a MUCH deeper prospect pool than the Flames have had in decades, we SHOULD start seeing more prospects pushing for the NHL and either being traded away or forcing vets to be traded away. Next 2 seasons will be especially telling. I am not sure about THIS season as the one make that judgment on, but I think a combination of this season and probably the next 2 will be. Poirier, Shinkaruk, Andersson, Kylington, Klimchuk, Jankowski, Kulak, Wotherspoon, Gillies, Rittich - these are all prospects that are at least trending up and getting close to breaking out. There simply may not be room for them on the team. Many of them will develop, but will not provide an 'upgrade' over a vet, even with the cap in mind. Some of them at least should start transitioning to the NHL at least, even if on another team.

I am never a fan of breaking the drafting and development program into a year-by-year comparison. I think a more fair way is to see trends. I think the trend is going in the right direction, and we will see if it continues.

07-05-2017, 10:02 PM	#54
Calgary4LIfe Franchise Player Join Date: Jun 2010 Exp:	I didn't notice Jooris on the OP - sorry if he was listed - but he counts as an AHL graduate. Hathaway is at that tipping point as well. People do argue the case of being 'rushed' vs 'stagnated' regarding the AHL vs the NHL. Most people feel that the AHL is the development league, and that the NHL is where a player who is already developed gets to play in. I think that is mostly right, but not totally. I think there is a certain threshold that needs to be reached regardless of any existing opportunities on the team. I believe there are 3 thresholds that a prospect needs to reach: 1) Do well enough in the AHL to earn a cup of coffee in the NHL 2) a point in time in their development that they can run a 10 game stretch of games in the NHL before fading 3) a point in time where a prospect can be sheltered enough to remain in the NHL and finish off developing When I look at some of the prospects, few of them manage to get past the cup of coffee stage. I think Hathaway, Kulak, Wotherspoon and Shinakaruk are past this stage. Kulak, Wotherspoon and Shinkaruk seem to fade and end up regressing somewhat after a stretch of games. Hathaway is the one that I think can (and probably should) be given a long stretch. Jankowski is an interesting one. I personally feel he is 'done' with his AHL time. Sure, he can learn more, but I honestly think that he is at a threshold that can handle an extended look at least, and his defensive acumen will help him from getting buried down the lineup (or 'over sheltered). The NHL is very much a development league. We experienced it first hand with Backlund, Gaudreau, Monahan, Giordano, etc., etc., etc.. A player just has to reach that threshold where he is just past that tweener stage. Just an inch beyond tweener stage where he can get an extended look, and not start to consistently fade. I don't necessarily think that the Flames have been terrible at it. I think what they suffered from the most was poor drafting (and sheer bad luck at times with injuries). For instance, I really thought Negrin was about to start entering the NHL years ago, but a blown knee ended his career. Pelech I thought was borderline serviceable on the bottom pairing, but injuries stalled him (without arguing if he was 1st round pick worthy or not is beside the point). I believe Sieloff suffered from way too many injuries taking away from his development. I do see some instances of troubling red flags. Morrison was probably the very best right after he got signed, and then he started regressing. That's a troubling red flag for me. There are other examples as well. However, I also think that now with many more picks in the last few years and a MUCH deeper prospect pool than the Flames have had in decades, we SHOULD start seeing more prospects pushing for the NHL and either being traded away or forcing vets to be traded away. Next 2 seasons will be especially telling. I am not sure about THIS season as the one make that judgment on, but I think a combination of this season and probably the next 2 will be. Poirier, Shinkaruk, Andersson, Kylington, Klimchuk, Jankowski, Kulak, Wotherspoon, Gillies, Rittich - these are all prospects that are at least trending up and getting close to breaking out. There simply may not be room for them on the team. Many of them will develop, but will not provide an 'upgrade' over a vet, even with the cap in mind. Some of them at least should start transitioning to the NHL at least, even if on another team. I am never a fan of breaking the drafting and development program into a year-by-year comparison. I think a more fair way is to see trends. I think the trend is going in the right direction, and we will see if it continues.