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Old 08-13-2017, 12:31 AM   #272
bigrangy
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I ran some numbers a little while back

Bennett right now is a 30 point #3C. That's worth about 2 million as an RFA with no arb rights. If he had arb rights that would probably be worth 3 milllion.

So I'll say he's worth 5 million on a two year deal.

I'd say we expect (and his camp expects) that Bennett will be a Johansen tier #1C. He just signed a deal that pays him 8 million for each UFA year. So years 6,7, and 8 of a contract would be worth 8 mil if he signed a long term deal today.

Years 3,4, and 5 are the tricky ones. He would be RFA for all those years and he would probably be a #2C. So he'd be worth less than Monahan/Mackinnon/Barkov. From this I'd put his value for those season at around 5 mil.

So a cost per season as follows

2mil
3mil
5mil
5mil
5mil
8mil
8mil
8mil

These assumptions are pretty favorable to Bennett's camp imo. He hasn't proven much in his NHL time so far. Expectations are mostly based on pedigree at this point.

That pay structure would translate to a

1x2
2x2.5
3x3.33
4x3.75
5x4
6x4.66
7x5.15
8x5.5

The best deal there for the Flames would be the 4x3.75. Gets you term and low hit while also not locking you in forever if progression stops. It would also keep Bennett as a RFA at the end of the deal.

For me, these would be fair value contracts for each length. If the final deal comes in less than these, I think Tre will have made a smart signing.
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