The fact that Toews is the first establishment candidate to declare, and, according to Braid, is backed by Kenney's campaign team, lends support to the idea that the balance of power within the UCP rests firmly with rural voters. They'll need a moderate, urban candidate just to engage the former PC wing, causing voters who otherwise might have sat out to cast a vote. Then they'll need to hope that Toews outlasts that candidate on the ballot, so that the runoff votes go to from that candidate to Toews (as opposed to Toews getting knocked out first, where his second place votes are less certain to go to an establishment candidate over Jean).
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