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Old 01-24-2017, 08:19 AM   #4
Kavvy
Self Imposed Exile
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Calgary
Exp:
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A big % gain of a small number is still a small number.

CREB shows currently a massive 14% increase in sales y/y January to date, however, that only works out to a total of 603 sales month-to-date.

For comparison, Aug 24, 2015, the month to date sales were 1,211 (it finished the month with 1,643 sales). Over double the current January 14% increase in sales. I picked August 24, 2015 as a random month in my stats that wasn't from the months of December or January.

Also, January 2015 wasn't exactly known to be a wonderful time for our real estate, yet the total sales as of 24-Jan-2015 were 601... almost identical to the 603 posted today on Creb.com. That month, Jan-2015 ended the month with 879 total sales, a massive reduction of the 2014 total Jan month sales of 1,438 (Jan 2013 total month sales were 1,229, Jan 2011 was 1,084, Jan 2010 was 1,128). It would be a decent assumption to say we are following the dismal January 2015 total sales pace.

Is this still bullish for the housing market? I would say it shows a potential sign of reversal, but anyone posting the stats you posted should note what a January month to date stat actually means, and how it when compared to previous years, or they are are being irresponsible in my opinion. Based on the numbers I posted above, I think we are still far below the needed sales in January for this to be considered a reversal and we are still in a downtrend.

Honestly, the lack of total new listings has me a bit more concerned as a buyer.

Lastly,

The average price gains are may only be due to homes selling within the higher price brackets, and not at the lower brackets - not necessary due to the increase in worth of a given home. I personally have nothing to back this up other then the stats another realtor on this forum put into the thread regarding the housing bubble burst. In the end, average price gains of a smaller number (i.e. less total sales as it is a January stat) means less statistically.

Long story short- if the above wasn't posted with whatever article you read, you're reading terrible articles and posts. Heck, even the average price argument which lacks the most data could be easily verified or disproven by CREB, but from what I seen, they don't address it.

As you are a Realtor, I must admit I am a little frustrated you simply posted what you posted without mentioning any of the above.

Last edited by Kavvy; 01-25-2017 at 08:16 AM.
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