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Originally Posted by Tinordi
Bizarre take.
Your concerns on the supply chain challenges are noted. The market economy has also noted them and is in the process of doubling global battery production in 4 years.
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300 GWh is roughly the equivalent of 1 million barrels of oil with conversion losses. It's a puny amount of energy.
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No one's saying that BEV's are just going to replace ICE cars tomorrow. But that doesn't matter. What matters, as I've explained many times on this forum, is the change at the margin. Most people get it. Even Oil executives are starting to see the writing on the wall:
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Shell is arguably more of a natural gas player now, and increased penetration EVs and unreliable renewables greatly benefit natural gas.
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It wasn't 15 years ago that the exact same arguments were being made about solar power. How did those arguments turn out? Not well. Solar and wind now dominate new capacity additions in the power sector just as EVs will dominate new vehicle adoption in the coming 15 years.
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Capacities are misleading given their lousy capacity factors and solar and wind still remain rounding errors in human energy usage and are less important than burning wood, grasses and animal dung. And in grids where they have higher penetration, cost to the consumer and difficulties in maintaining reliability are becoming major issues.
The biggest energy story of the last 15 years has been the growth of coal (thanks to China) and fracking.