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Old 01-08-2013, 01:51 PM   #26
octothorp
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With Sacre making his first NBA start tonight, under somewhat dubious circumstances, here's a couple other notes:

Kris Joseph was waived by the Celtics. He's been playing pretty well in the d-league, and is probably more a reflection of the roster and salary flexibility the Celts want, rather than a judgement on Joseph. Wouldn't be surprised to see him get offered a 10-day contract by another team this year.

NCAA is pretty-much all good news. Bennett still playing like a top-10 draft pick; Stauskas continues to shoot well; Wiltjer finally looks good, mostly thanks to his 3-point shooting; Pangos and Olynyk have had some huge games; Birch has hade big games and useless games, not surprising for a guy still working his way back into the game after a year off; Bhullar's scoring at a fantastic percentage (that's what happens when you can dunk on your tip-toes) and best of all, his minutes are increasing.
Only bad news is that Kabongo will miss another month due to violations. Tough decision for him now, whether or not to declare for the draft this year.
Also, I had a note about junior college center Keanau Post, who's just committed to Missouri for next year. That'll likely give Missouri three Canadians next year, along with Webster-Chan and Jankovic.
Xavier Rathan-Mayes has committed to Florida State for next year, and there have been rumours that FSU is also in the lead for his buddy and prep-school teammate, Andrew Wiggins. Tyler Ennis signed with Syracuse.
Lyles decommitted from Indiana (2014 class), and remains uncommitted.

So, here's a little look ahead to the 2016 Olympics... my very preliminary 2016 Olympic team depth-chart, with 2016 ages of the players in brackets.

C: Anthony (34), Sacre (27), Olynyk (25), Birch (23), Bhullar (22)
PF: Thompson (25), Bennett (23), Nicholson(27), Lyles (21), Wiltjer (23)
SF: Wiggins (22), K. Joseph (27)
SG: Stauskas (23), Rathan-Mayes (22), Rautins, (27)
PG: Pangos (23), Kabongo (24), C. Joseph (25), Ennis (22)

The obvious strengths of the roster are youth, top end talent (Wiggins), and depth at PF. Big weakness is inexperience, both at the international game and overall. Their strength at power-forward could help overcome a lack of depth at SF and a lack of top skill at C. In those five guys, they've got pretty-much every style of PF you could want.

This chart assumes a couple things: most importantly, that the team actually qualifies for Rio, and secondly, that the majority of the guys commit to the national program. In addition to this, there could also be some guys not yet really on the radar, or some guys from Europe who have played for the national program before who are brought in for experience. A couple proposed changes to the Olympic tournament are expanding the field from 12 to 16 teams, changing the 3-point line to NBA distance, and possibly even adding a 3-on-3 tournament. None of these changes have been confirmed or rejected by the IOC, though FIBA did reject a proposal to make the Olympic tournament a 23-and-under event (which would have made Canada an instant medal-contender).

The important upcoming tournaments are:
Summer of 2013: U19 World Championship, Prague. I believe Wiggins, Rathan-Mayes, and Lyles will all still be eligible. Hopefully all three show up, which would make Canada a strong medal contender.
Late Summer of 2013: FIBA Americas, Venezuela.
Summer of 2014: FIBA World Championship, Spain. Good chance to see who's committing to the national program.
Early Summer of 2015: Pan Am Games, Toronto. Irrelevant tournament in the grand scheme of things, but it would be great if they had a good turn-out infront of a home crowd, and used it as a warm-up for the Americas Championship.
Summer of 2015: FIBA Americas Championship. The first real chance to qualify for a spot in Rio.
Early Summer of 2016: Olympic qualifying tournament. Last chance to get in, if they miss at the Americas. For 2012, they missed even making the qualifying tournament.
Late Summer of 2016: Olympics, Rio de Janiero. Given the national team's historic struggles and the inexperience of this young group, I'm not expecting a medal, but I expect them to be competitive against nearly everyone except the US. Really, I think it'll be 2020 where we start to have a realistic shot at a medal, but this 2016 will still be a massive stepping stone for the national program.

Last edited by octothorp; 04-09-2013 at 11:05 AM.
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