Those projections seem overly-optimistic to me. I expect commercial fleets will quickly switch to autonomous EVs. The private market will take a long time.
Look at young families. Has anyone seen what a couple pre-schoolers do to a car? Are people really going to want to hop into a car that was just used by a family with a 3 year old and a 5 year old to make a trip to McDonald's? Then there's the issue of car seat compatibility.
Smokers still make up around 15 per cent of the population. They'll want their own vehicles to smoke in.
Then there's simple status. Can't impress people with your taste and affluence if everyone uses car shares.
I expect we'll see close to 50 per cent private vehicles for at least another 20 years after autonomous vehicles clear their regulatory hurdles.
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Originally Posted by fotze
If this day gets you riled up, you obviously aren't numb to the disappointment yet to be a real fan.
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