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getbak · 05-29-2017, 04:43 PM

There has been talk in various threads about what to expect McDavid's second contract to look like. It doesn't really belong in the Trade Rumours thread, so I thought I'd put this here.

I posted these numbers during the season, but now that the season is over, we know how things played out overall...

In NHL history, only three players have ever won the Art Ross Trophy in their second NHL season: Gretzky, Crosby, and McDavid. Gretzky did so in his third pro season, but it was his second in the NHL.

In the Salary Cap era, only four players have won the Art Ross during their Entry-Level Contracts (Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, McDavid), and only Crosby and McDavid did so before signing their second NHL contracts (Ovechkin signed his second contract mid-season before winning the Art Ross and Malkin signed during the summer between his second and third seasons).

Crosby signed his second contract on July 7, 2007 when the Cap was set at $50.3 million (even though his contract didn't take effect for another season, it was still governed by the value of the Cap on the day it was signed). Crosby's second contract was a 5-year deal which paid $9 million for the first four seasons, and $7.5 million for the final season (which coincided with the 2012-13 lockout year), with an Annual Averaged Value (AAV) of $8.7 million.

The cap hit on Crosby's second contract was 17.30% of the total team cap on the day it was signed (86.48% of the maximum allowed).

Ovechkin signed his second contract on January 10, 2008, under the same $50.3 million cap. Ovechkin's second contract was a 13-year deal which paid $9 million for the first 6 seasons and $10 million for the final 7, with an AAV of $9.54 million.

The cap hit on Ovechkin's second contract was 18.96% of the total team cap on the day it was signed (94.82% of the maximum allowed).

Malkin's second contract was identical to Crosby's but was signed a year later (after Malkin finished second to Ovechkin in the Art Ross race, but a year before he won the Art Ross himself). Malkin signed his contract on July 2, 2008, after the Cap had risen to $56.7 million.

Because the Cap had gone up, Malkin's contract was a lower percentage of the Cap than Crosby's. The cap hit on Malkin's second contract was 15.34% of the total team cap on the day it was signed (76.72% of the maximum allowed).

Statistically, it's hard to compare McDavid's rookie season with the others because he missed almost half the season. However, we can look at their league ranking in Points per Game (among players with at least 20 games played).

In their rookie seasons, McDavid finished third overall in points per game; Ovechkin was fifth; Crosby was sixth; and Malkin was nineteenth.
In their second seasons, McDavid and Crosby were both first overall in points per game; Ovechkin was sixteenth; and Malkin was third (behind Ovechkin and Crosby).
Over their first two seasons combined, McDavid's points per game was second overall behind Kane; Crosby was second overall behind Thornton; Ovechkin was seventh overall; and Malkin was ninth overall.

McDavid and Crosby's performances match up very well through two seasons. You could argue that McDavid had an even better first two seasons than Crosby relative to the rest of the league.

People bring up Crosby's 8.7 deal that matches his number and speculate that McDavid may take a similar deal for 9.7. The thing with that is that 8.7 worked out nicely for Crosby. It was a fair number relative to the cap of the day. He may have left a little money on the table, but not a lot.

If the Cap rises to $76 million next year ($15.2 million single player max), expecting McDavid to take less than $10 million would be asking him to take a discount in excess of 35% (Crosby's cap hit was less than 15% from the max).

If the cap remains at $73 million next season, to match Crosby's second contract, McDavid would need to sign for an AAV of $12.63M. To match Ovechkin's, it would need to be $13.84M.
If the cap goes up to $76 million (as has been rumoured), McDavid would need to be signed for an AAV of $13.15M to match Crosby or $14.41M to match Ovechkin.

05-29-2017, 04:43 PM	#6616
getbak Franchise Player Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Calgary, AB Exp:	There has been talk in various threads about what to expect McDavid's second contract to look like. It doesn't really belong in the Trade Rumours thread, so I thought I'd put this here. I posted these numbers during the season, but now that the season is over, we know how things played out overall... In NHL history, only three players have ever won the Art Ross Trophy in their second NHL season: Gretzky, Crosby, and McDavid. Gretzky did so in his third pro season, but it was his second in the NHL. In the Salary Cap era, only four players have won the Art Ross during their Entry-Level Contracts (Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, McDavid), and only Crosby and McDavid did so before signing their second NHL contracts (Ovechkin signed his second contract mid-season before winning the Art Ross and Malkin signed during the summer between his second and third seasons). Crosby signed his second contract on July 7, 2007 when the Cap was set at $50.3 million (even though his contract didn't take effect for another season, it was still governed by the value of the Cap on the day it was signed). Crosby's second contract was a 5-year deal which paid $9 million for the first four seasons, and $7.5 million for the final season (which coincided with the 2012-13 lockout year), with an Annual Averaged Value (AAV) of $8.7 million. The cap hit on Crosby's second contract was 17.30% of the total team cap on the day it was signed (86.48% of the maximum allowed). Ovechkin signed his second contract on January 10, 2008, under the same $50.3 million cap. Ovechkin's second contract was a 13-year deal which paid $9 million for the first 6 seasons and $10 million for the final 7, with an AAV of $9.54 million. The cap hit on Ovechkin's second contract was 18.96% of the total team cap on the day it was signed (94.82% of the maximum allowed). Malkin's second contract was identical to Crosby's but was signed a year later (after Malkin finished second to Ovechkin in the Art Ross race, but a year before he won the Art Ross himself). Malkin signed his contract on July 2, 2008, after the Cap had risen to $56.7 million. Because the Cap had gone up, Malkin's contract was a lower percentage of the Cap than Crosby's. The cap hit on Malkin's second contract was 15.34% of the total team cap on the day it was signed (76.72% of the maximum allowed). Statistically, it's hard to compare McDavid's rookie season with the others because he missed almost half the season. However, we can look at their league ranking in Points per Game (among players with at least 20 games played). In their rookie seasons, McDavid finished third overall in points per game; Ovechkin was fifth; Crosby was sixth; and Malkin was nineteenth. In their second seasons, McDavid and Crosby were both first overall in points per game; Ovechkin was sixteenth; and Malkin was third (behind Ovechkin and Crosby). Over their first two seasons combined, McDavid's points per game was second overall behind Kane; Crosby was second overall behind Thornton; Ovechkin was seventh overall; and Malkin was ninth overall. McDavid and Crosby's performances match up very well through two seasons. You could argue that McDavid had an even better first two seasons than Crosby relative to the rest of the league. People bring up Crosby's 8.7 deal that matches his number and speculate that McDavid may take a similar deal for 9.7. The thing with that is that 8.7 worked out nicely for Crosby. It was a fair number relative to the cap of the day. He may have left a little money on the table, but not a lot. If the Cap rises to $76 million next year ($15.2 million single player max), expecting McDavid to take less than $10 million would be asking him to take a discount in excess of 35% (Crosby's cap hit was less than 15% from the max). If the cap remains at $73 million next season, to match Crosby's second contract, McDavid would need to sign for an AAV of $12.63M. To match Ovechkin's, it would need to be $13.84M. If the cap goes up to $76 million (as has been rumoured), McDavid would need to be signed for an AAV of $13.15M to match Crosby or $14.41M to match Ovechkin. __________________ Turn up the good, turn down the suck!