It looks like the loss to BC has dropped UMass to 14th in the Pairwise, but the St. Lawrence upset means 14th won't likely be good enough to get invited to the tournament.
For those who don't follow college hockey, here's how it works:
16 teams get invited to the tournament, the 6 Conference champions get automatic invites and the 10 best other teams get at-large invites.
The at-large invites are determined by a ranking formula that takes into account things like overall record and quality of competition. This is called the Pairwise.
There are 2 historically weak conferences whose teams are never in the top of the rankings, so their champions get spots 15 and 16 in the tournament.
The other 4 conferences are usually won by a team that was already strong and would have qualified as an at-large team anyway, so they open the door for the 11-14 ranked teams to get at-large invites.
When there's an upset in one of the conferences, it puts those 11-14 teams at risk.
With St. Lawrence defeating Quinnipiac, all three remaining teams in the ECAC tournament are below UMass in the Pairwise, meaning the ECAC champion will take the #14 spot in the tournament.
Because the Pairwise ranks teams relative to their performance against each other, there are still some scenarios where UMass could move up into an at-large spot. We'll find out after tomorrow's games.