Quote:
Originally Posted by Vox
It would be 31% chance of picking an impact player if there were three picks with 20%, 7% and 7% individual chance of picking an impact player.
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can you please explain this? I'm just trying to understand the math.
I was thinking that 20/100 players for the first pick, 7/100 for the second, and 7/100 for the 3rd pick. so, out of 300 players picked, 34 of them made an impact. so the average is 11 1/3.
how did you get to 31%. I've forgotten my statistics... is the theory that 5 years of picking at a 20% means probability of 1 impact player? I would say that the average is the same, but the probability is different?
thanks!