Quote:
Originally Posted by activeStick
Strength of opponent is certainly a way to predict outcomes but it's been shown time and time again over the years, and again over the past couple weeks that at the end of the season, the dynamics of playoffs around the corner and the pressures on teams that need to win the games they should make predicting outcomes using that method unreliable.
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There's a mixture of parity and confirmation bias. Any team can beat any team on any given night, but we remember the ones that 'shouldn't' have happened while over looking the greater majority that go the expected way.
Here's the last 3 seasons last 10 games for the bottom five teams:
2015-2016:
Toronto 3-7-0
Edmonton 4-5-1
Vancouver 4-5-1
Columbus 5-5-0
Calgary 4-5-1
2014-2015:
Buffalo 3-6-1
Arizona 3-7-0
Edmonton 4-5-1
Toronto 3-5-2
Carolina 4-5-1
New Jersey 1-6-3 (sixth)
2013-2014:
Buffalo 1-7-2
Florida 3-7-0
Edmonton 4-6-0
Calgary 5-5-0
NY Islanders 6-2-2
Exactly one team finished the season with a better than even record, and the Islanders are no where near a bottom team like Colorado and Arizona are this year.
Of course St .Louis could lose all six games to the Coyotes and Avalanche, it's just a far better chance that the Jets lose to the Sharks, Penguins, Wild and Preds. And the Jets need to gain 4 points on the Blues (dependent on ROW) in two less games to pass them and still have to pass the Kings. Of course always a chance that a team like Nashville, the Ducks, or God-forbid the Flames completely choke. But definitely odds are stacked against the Jets, and it's not like there surging. They've won 5 in their last 10.