Quote:
Originally Posted by GirlySports
Scenario 2) He's has not been turned.
a) He doesn't know he has the spore so he acts normal until tonight.
b) We lynch someone 3/17 chance it's one of the hosts, 1/17 it's spore-holder
c) He will give the spore to target and on Day 2 tell us who target is.
d) We lynch target, chance that target is host 3/15, passenger 12/15, spore returns to captain, captain has no turned to kill so won't get spore until Night 3.
This scenario is not bad because no one will be turned on Day 2 but still some gamble because we may lynch one of the role players who the spore did not affect anyways.
I don't like killing (target) because the spore keeps returning to the captain which guarantees that he will give it to a passenger next. I think it's better to randomly keep passing the spore around. The spore-holder right now (even if already turned) doesn't know who the hosts are. We want the spore tonight to be passed to one of the 3 hosts, the person hidden by the smuggler, the genetic anomaly guy or even the government agent (two flips). The more Days that the spore lands on people that can't be infected the more numbers we hwill ave. Because the more people that are turned makes our winning condition harder and they can talk and not give the spore to each other.
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Under scenario 2, if the Revealer is indeed still passenger, we would still be lynching someone on Day 2 though. Target would have had a 12/15 chance of being a Passenger to start but is now ~50/50 of being turned without Smuggler interference. A 'random' lynch would be 13/16 they are passenger and Night 2 would still contain the spore with a good chance of it going to a passenger anyways.
A Target lynch would also allow Government Agent to check the Revealer. If he was the spore-carrier and lying about being a passenger, he dies. If he was scum and playing some mind games it does open us up to find the truth (i.e. someone getting spored but not turning on Night 2 would be proof the Revealer was scum). Much more importantly, if the Revealer was honest, we get rid of the spore for a night. The odds are still likely that it goes to at least one passenger between Night 2 and Night 3 if we don't get rid of it.
I don't think we should have a completely set plan going into the night and what happens the next day, because that opens us up for Scum traps on Smuggler etc.. But I do think taking out Target and hopefully ridding ourselves of the spore for a night would be a decent outcome if nothing else presented itself.