My view (without any data to back it up) is that neither the Alberta Party nor the Liberals have much of a hope in Calgary Elbow, which is historically a Conservative riding with a few exceptions.
The real issue is which one shows a stronger finish. The Liberals do have a major brand problem in this province, where they struggle to get votes in spite of being ideologically more or less ideologically aligned with the median urban Alberta voter. (There are other issues besides brand, but it's a big one)
If Clark finishes far ahead of Susan Wright, that is a very bad sign for the Liberals, not just in Elbow but across the city, including in tidings like Buffalo and Currie where the Liberals have a much better shot of winning.
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