Quote:
Originally Posted by Vulcan
Go for it.
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Well, the data is garbage, the premise is a mess, and, really, that subjective method of setting target variables is also very silly. So I'm not going to waste my time on that.
But I did do something easier that I believe takes this guys idea and at least normalizes it to a point where the numbers actually mean something, even if the data is garbage. My methodology is thus:
I assumed that Hits, Blocked shots and Takeaway/Giveaway differential actually defines grittiness. Silly presumption, I know, but it's somewhere to start.
I took each statistic and divided it by the total TOI for that player. This gives me a value for Hits/min, or BS/min or TGDiff/m. Then I normalized the value by prescribing it a z-value. Basically, (value - average) / stdev. This at least tells you how far off the average this player is in a certain stat. One of the biggest problems I have with his model is that hits and blocked shots and differentials are on completely different scales, yet they aren't weighted in any way at all. At least by normalizing the data I can give them a little bit of reference. Then I just add up the normalized values to provide a value. So normalized hits/min + normalized blocked shots/min + normalized diff/min = RGI.
I have the values for the top 80% of defensemen in TOI for the 2011/2012 season. The bottom 20% of minutes played defensemen obviously skewed the numbers significantly. Also, I used the last full season because I find the half season is too easy to find skewed numbers. Even though this is all nonsense.
I think the results are hilarious, a real who's who of difference-makers, but you be the judge to determine if this provides any value whatsoever.
Unfortunately it looks like garbage when I copy it from excel. Is there a way to make it look like a table?
Top 20:
Player RGI
Mark Fistric 4.975973205
Greg Zanon 3.861565575
Mike Komisarek 3.304797886
Chris Summers 3.293289769
Colten Teubert 3.134423126
Milan Jurcina 3.075349139
Luke Schenn 2.997295421
Anton Volchenkov 2.924629583
Keaton Ellerby 2.558543321
Brooks Orpik 2.533924316
Ryan O'Byrne 2.483385382
Stu Bickel 2.470009632
Ladislav Smid 2.468044708
Matt Carkner 2.352073475
Brett Clark 2.295956087
Rostislav Klesla 2.263849166
Brayden McNabb 2.261849437
Josh Gorges 2.156049342
Mike Commodore 2.125648697
Nicklas Grossmann 1.966998439
The rest:
Steve Eminger 1.956820257 Michael Sauer 1.940822795 Steve Staios 1.913365718 Andreas Lilja 1.872671143 Bryan Allen 1.817998455 Eric Brewer 1.722070623 Deryk Engelland 1.604637471 Andrew Alberts 1.59281374 Toni Lydman 1.578798301 Erik Gudbranson 1.526064069 Mike Weaver 1.488007313 Pavel Kubina 1.486402672 Mike Weber 1.476448398 Adam McQuaid 1.475911918 Aaron Johnson 1.371240238 Robyn Regehr 1.266297514 Derek Joslin 1.2657164 Brian Lee 1.213200465 Bruno Gervais 1.208337192 Aaron Rome 1.207854581 Stephane Robidas 1.17709376 Luca Sbisa 1.172245802 Victor Hedman 1.139304192 Mike Mottau 1.122304446 Niklas Kronwall 1.118928028 Kris Russell 1.108741988 Brent Seabrook 1.091267774 Keith Aulie 1.089034123 Anton Stralman 1.074873599 Brad Stuart 0.999912818 Shea Weber 0.996153748 Andrej Meszaros 0.988394768 Theo Peckham 0.988125059 Roman Hamrlik 0.967136568 Ryan Wilson 0.949980768 Chris Pronger 0.937869568 Sheldon Brookbank 0.937674016 Roman Josi 0.935576239 Adam Pardy 0.897713837 Kevin Klein 0.873108953 Mark Eaton 0.871242746 Jared Cowen 0.866422455 Clayton Stoner 0.845807651 Barret Jackman 0.835811228 Marc-Andre Bourdon 0.828675031 Marc Methot 0.820639782 Andy Sutton 0.818123633 Dennis Seidenberg 0.808776858 Ryan McDonagh 0.779114494 Andrew MacDonald 0.681709128 Anton Babchuk 0.62769422 Justin Faulk 0.624678788 Johnny Boychuk 0.623008824 Nick Schultz 0.615007735 Jan Hejda 0.603440629 Braydon Coburn 0.547101435 Ryan Ellis 0.545108571 David Schlemko 0.513986472 Shane O'Brien 0.452010158 Steven Kampfer 0.422601599 Zbynek Michalek 0.398418489 Adrian Aucoin 0.390935354 Chris Phillips 0.361750033 Cory Sarich 0.33758728 Jaroslav Spacek 0.321935403 Christopher Tanev 0.279453165 Hal Gill 0.253519897 Michael Del Zotto 0.179649805 Carl Gunnarsson 0.175186161 Alex Pietrangelo 0.149901327 Marc Staal 0.136865116 Francis Bouillon 0.124965759 Jason Garrison 0.112952717 Jeff Woywitka 0.05309464 Simon Despres 0.015261542 Tim Gleason 0.011078302 Ron Hainsey -0.023732775 Mark Giordano -0.031649423 Ben Lovejoy -0.049117683 Carlo Colaiacovo -0.065675866 Niklas Hjalmarsson -0.095093578 Johnny Oduya -0.109236385 Nikita Nikitin -0.151581973 Zach Bogosian -0.204689349 Philip Larsen -0.240413446 Fedor Tyutin -0.254333718 Oliver Ekman-Larsson -0.284324986 Matt Niskanen -0.294969605 Jack Hillen -0.324117156 Keith Ballard -0.331761347 Mike Lundin -0.36219539 Andrej Sekera -0.371536198 Kyle Quincey -0.399982133 Dion Phaneuf -0.410628504 Brendan Mikkelson -0.415257504 Sami Lepisto -0.44679986 Marco Scandella -0.495737273 Dylan Olsen -0.504492973 Kimmo Timonen -0.513784022 Alec Martinez -0.549004778 Grant Clitsome -0.595074245 Sheldon Souray -0.597931357 Jakub Kindl -0.63561618 Dylan Reese -0.648952454 Jack Johnson -0.66167131 Derek Smith -0.662068839 Raphael Diaz -0.663851828 Bryce Salvador -0.683398023 Cody Franson -0.686675947 Matt Gilroy -0.69671208 John Moore -0.697599476 Karl Alzner -0.716891373 James Wisniewski -0.730705836 Mark Flood -0.751587948 Ian Cole -0.773876588 Tom Gilbert -0.830079319 Scott Hannan -0.834479308 Jared Spurgeon -0.909759307 Duncan Keith -0.911586575 Henrik Tallinder -0.919694971 Mike Green -0.931819366 Chris Campoli -0.93885322 Dustin Byfuglien -0.941593473 Matthew Carle -0.946494049 Jeff Petry -0.954973349 Dmitry Orlov -0.971068645 Ed Jovanovski -0.999823544 Dennis Wideman -1.020173314 Chris Butler -1.027507544 Paul Martin -1.072049428 Lubomir Visnovsky -1.132687226 John-Michael Liles -1.139164913 Jordan Leopold -1.146137853 Nicklas Lidstrom -1.147191211 Steve Montador -1.163085923 Jamie McBain -1.179507992 Filip Kuba -1.251415828 Brett Lebda -1.328457201 Zdeno Chara -1.343770502 Slava Voynov -1.382647128 David Rundblad -1.391779759 Sergei Gonchar -1.448326878 Ian White -1.472929438 John Carlson -1.501704109 Rob Scuderi -1.527077131 Nick Leddy -1.550823299 Jonathan Ericsson -1.551536069 Erik Gustafsson -1.603735093 Sean O'Donnell -1.620674055 Sami Salo -1.640314574 Kent Huskins -1.651843915 Adam Larsson -1.652984368 Matt Hunwick -1.660858335 Andrew Ference -1.680194315 David Savard -1.81069739 Jay Bouwmeester -1.831494096 Randy Jones -1.8477256 Tomas Kaberle -1.870532223 Cam Fowler -1.879171171 Tobias Enstrom -2.000684161 Christian Ehrhoff -2.001021339 Drew Doughty -2.050147676 Brent Burns -2.074925699 TJ Brodie -2.176675516 Yannick Weber -2.210264098 P.K. Subban -2.215230037 Jake Gardiner -2.297895838 Marek Zidlicky -2.335816089 Cam Barker -2.452376376 Ryan Whitney -2.456279556 Marc-Andre Gragnani -3.018303456 Keith Yandle -3.356180872