octothorp
01-13-2010, 01:51 PM
So I got frustrated not being able to find any realistic medal predictions for Canada, so I went through the stats and did my own. I think it's pretty comprehensive; long enough that I'll have to do it in two parts:
Bobsleigh: Leuders is having a disappointing season in what will probably be his last. That said, he'd love to go out with another Olympic medal, and the home track is typically a big advantage in Bobsleigh. His best result this season is a 4th place in two-man and 9th place in four. He did get a bronze in two man and 4th in four man last year in the world cup race held at Whistler. His four man team is really struggling this year. Lyndon Rush has a great chance to finally emerge from Leuders' shadow this year. He got 4th last year in two-man at Whistler, and this year his four-man team looks very good, with three top-four finishes in five races. On the women's side, things are looking very good: both Humphries and Upperton have consistenly registered top five finishes (with a combined four medals in five races) and a double-medal is well within the realm of possibility.
Prediction: 2 medals. 3 or even 4 is a possibility.
Luge: Canada is without a serious medal contender here: Alex Gough on the women's side and Samuel Edney on the men's each have one top five finish this season, and home track advantage does play a significant role in the sport, so a medal shot is not outside the realm of possibility.
Prediction: no medals.
Skeleton: Last year at Whistler, Jon Montgomery and Jeff Pain got gold and bronze, respectively, and both have a medal finish this year. Pain earned a bronze last Olympics, and would love to get another. The women, surprisingly, were shut out at Whistler last year, but Melissa Hollingsworth has five medals in six races this year, and should be considered one of Canada's best medal contenders in any sport. She already has an Olympic bronze, and has a good chance of bettering that result. Amy Gough has a silver this year and Michelle Kelly has two top five finishes.
Prediction: A followup to last Olympics, where Canada finished with three medals in two races, is going to be difficult. Double medals are a possibility in both races, but I think 2 medals total is a realistic prediction.
Ski Jumping: We have no ski jumpers in the top 100 in the world. Prediction: nope.
Nordic Combined: See ski-jumping.
Alpine Skiing: It looked like Canada was going to be peaking just in time for these games, but it's getting hard to keep up with all the injuries. On the men's side, Osborne-Paradis is the best medal shot. He's been very good at all disciplines this year, with two top 10 finishes in giant slalom, a 1st in super G, and a 1st in downhill. Robbie Dixon has top 10 finishes in both the giant slalom and downhill. Erik Guay has two top ten super G finishes, including a fourth at Lake Louise. Michael Janyk had his career best result, a slalom 5th, this season. On the women's side, Emily Brydon has five podium finishes in the last two years that she competed, including two in the downhill this year. Vancouver native Britt Janyk will look to bounce back from a difficult season last year. Two of Canada's other top skiiers on the women's side - Goodman and Vanderbeek - are both injured. Not sure if either will make it back for the Olympics.
Prediction: Predicting which Canadian athletes will rise here is extremely difficult. There isn't anything close to a sure medal here, but there's no shortage of athletes who have the potential to get to the podium. I think they'll end up with 1 medal. I'd go with Brydon in the downhill, but realistically it could come from anywhere. Canada hasn't medaled in alpine since 94, so even one would be an improvement.
Biathlon: Unlikely event for Canada. Le Guellec has two top ten finishes in his career (no podium finishes). On the women's side, Zina Kocher is suddenly an athlete worth paying attention to, as she had finished 4th in an event last month.
Prediction: no medals, but a top 10 finish here would be a major breakthrough for the sport. I think either Guellec or Kocher will make that happen.
Cross Country Skiing: Oddly, the men's side looks like a slightly better shot then the women's this time around, though both are longshots. Both Renner and Crawford are a long way down in the standings on the women's side, though on the men's side, Devon Kershaw has been consistently in the top 20 over the last two years.
Prediction: No medals. This event produced two surprise medals for the women in Torino, and Beckie Scott famously got a gold in Salt Lake. Coming away with any sort of hardware this time will be very difficult. Still, it's produced some of the best stories for Canadians in the last two Olympics, so it's worth keeping an eye on.
Curling: Martin had a disappointing result in Nagano (silver), and despite winning the World Championship in '08, still has a bit of a reputation to overcome as underperforming in international competition. Cheryl Bernard is a real questionmark, as she was certainly not the favorite at the trials. Prediction: 2 medals. Though Canadians will obsess over the colour (especially if Martin fails to win gold).
Figure Skating: Patrick Chan seems to be in more commercials than almost any other amateur Canadian athlete. And there's reason to hope that he'll take the men's program back to a level it hasn't been at since Elvis Stojko. He's had solid results in International Competition (though has been struggling with an injury this year). Joanne Rochette won a silver at the worlds last year, and has been on or around the podium in almost every major international event since her 5th place finish at the last Olympics. Definitely a veteran who should be able to handle the intense amount of pressure the Canadian figure-skaters will receive. Same goes for Virtue and Moir in the ice dancing: they've medaled consistently over the last three years, so this time around should be no different. In pairs, Canada has three solid top-ten couples, but only one of them (Dube/Davidson) has ever medaled in a major international event. They, or Duhamel and Buntin, or Brodeur and Mattatall, could find a way onto the podium, but it shouldn't be expected: there are some very good couples - particularly the Chinese and Russians - who are unlikely to falter.
Medal predictions: This is a sport where one slip can take you out of the medal running, so no medal is guaranteed no matter how strong the contender. I'm going to predict 3 medals: Rochette and Virtue/Moir have very good chances, and I think Chan will handle the pressure better than the last decade of male hopefuls.
Bobsleigh: Leuders is having a disappointing season in what will probably be his last. That said, he'd love to go out with another Olympic medal, and the home track is typically a big advantage in Bobsleigh. His best result this season is a 4th place in two-man and 9th place in four. He did get a bronze in two man and 4th in four man last year in the world cup race held at Whistler. His four man team is really struggling this year. Lyndon Rush has a great chance to finally emerge from Leuders' shadow this year. He got 4th last year in two-man at Whistler, and this year his four-man team looks very good, with three top-four finishes in five races. On the women's side, things are looking very good: both Humphries and Upperton have consistenly registered top five finishes (with a combined four medals in five races) and a double-medal is well within the realm of possibility.
Prediction: 2 medals. 3 or even 4 is a possibility.
Luge: Canada is without a serious medal contender here: Alex Gough on the women's side and Samuel Edney on the men's each have one top five finish this season, and home track advantage does play a significant role in the sport, so a medal shot is not outside the realm of possibility.
Prediction: no medals.
Skeleton: Last year at Whistler, Jon Montgomery and Jeff Pain got gold and bronze, respectively, and both have a medal finish this year. Pain earned a bronze last Olympics, and would love to get another. The women, surprisingly, were shut out at Whistler last year, but Melissa Hollingsworth has five medals in six races this year, and should be considered one of Canada's best medal contenders in any sport. She already has an Olympic bronze, and has a good chance of bettering that result. Amy Gough has a silver this year and Michelle Kelly has two top five finishes.
Prediction: A followup to last Olympics, where Canada finished with three medals in two races, is going to be difficult. Double medals are a possibility in both races, but I think 2 medals total is a realistic prediction.
Ski Jumping: We have no ski jumpers in the top 100 in the world. Prediction: nope.
Nordic Combined: See ski-jumping.
Alpine Skiing: It looked like Canada was going to be peaking just in time for these games, but it's getting hard to keep up with all the injuries. On the men's side, Osborne-Paradis is the best medal shot. He's been very good at all disciplines this year, with two top 10 finishes in giant slalom, a 1st in super G, and a 1st in downhill. Robbie Dixon has top 10 finishes in both the giant slalom and downhill. Erik Guay has two top ten super G finishes, including a fourth at Lake Louise. Michael Janyk had his career best result, a slalom 5th, this season. On the women's side, Emily Brydon has five podium finishes in the last two years that she competed, including two in the downhill this year. Vancouver native Britt Janyk will look to bounce back from a difficult season last year. Two of Canada's other top skiiers on the women's side - Goodman and Vanderbeek - are both injured. Not sure if either will make it back for the Olympics.
Prediction: Predicting which Canadian athletes will rise here is extremely difficult. There isn't anything close to a sure medal here, but there's no shortage of athletes who have the potential to get to the podium. I think they'll end up with 1 medal. I'd go with Brydon in the downhill, but realistically it could come from anywhere. Canada hasn't medaled in alpine since 94, so even one would be an improvement.
Biathlon: Unlikely event for Canada. Le Guellec has two top ten finishes in his career (no podium finishes). On the women's side, Zina Kocher is suddenly an athlete worth paying attention to, as she had finished 4th in an event last month.
Prediction: no medals, but a top 10 finish here would be a major breakthrough for the sport. I think either Guellec or Kocher will make that happen.
Cross Country Skiing: Oddly, the men's side looks like a slightly better shot then the women's this time around, though both are longshots. Both Renner and Crawford are a long way down in the standings on the women's side, though on the men's side, Devon Kershaw has been consistently in the top 20 over the last two years.
Prediction: No medals. This event produced two surprise medals for the women in Torino, and Beckie Scott famously got a gold in Salt Lake. Coming away with any sort of hardware this time will be very difficult. Still, it's produced some of the best stories for Canadians in the last two Olympics, so it's worth keeping an eye on.
Curling: Martin had a disappointing result in Nagano (silver), and despite winning the World Championship in '08, still has a bit of a reputation to overcome as underperforming in international competition. Cheryl Bernard is a real questionmark, as she was certainly not the favorite at the trials. Prediction: 2 medals. Though Canadians will obsess over the colour (especially if Martin fails to win gold).
Figure Skating: Patrick Chan seems to be in more commercials than almost any other amateur Canadian athlete. And there's reason to hope that he'll take the men's program back to a level it hasn't been at since Elvis Stojko. He's had solid results in International Competition (though has been struggling with an injury this year). Joanne Rochette won a silver at the worlds last year, and has been on or around the podium in almost every major international event since her 5th place finish at the last Olympics. Definitely a veteran who should be able to handle the intense amount of pressure the Canadian figure-skaters will receive. Same goes for Virtue and Moir in the ice dancing: they've medaled consistently over the last three years, so this time around should be no different. In pairs, Canada has three solid top-ten couples, but only one of them (Dube/Davidson) has ever medaled in a major international event. They, or Duhamel and Buntin, or Brodeur and Mattatall, could find a way onto the podium, but it shouldn't be expected: there are some very good couples - particularly the Chinese and Russians - who are unlikely to falter.
Medal predictions: This is a sport where one slip can take you out of the medal running, so no medal is guaranteed no matter how strong the contender. I'm going to predict 3 medals: Rochette and Virtue/Moir have very good chances, and I think Chan will handle the pressure better than the last decade of male hopefuls.