JiriHrdina
08-30-2004, 09:23 PM
Inspired by Looooob's great reports, I decided to throw together a summary of the Minnesota Wild's offseason and what is in store for the 2004/2005 CPHL season. I apologize in advance for the length.
Introduction
The 2003/2004 edition of the Minnesota Wild was a frustrating team to watch indeed. At times the Wild looked capable of beating any team, and at other teams looked only marginally better than your average expansion squad. An up and down season culminated in the Minnesota Wild squeaking into the playoffs only to be rolled over in the first round of the playoffs. The retirement of second line centre Joe Juneau coupled with a total of 8 unrestricted free agents (2 of which were protected), including many key forwards, left the Wild with many gaping holes into to fill, with limited assets to use as trade bait to fill these needs. It was clear that the 2004/2005 edition of the Wild would be much different from the 2003/2004 version, but few expected the degree of change that would ultimately happen. .
A Rocky Start
Following the resignation of their General Manager, the Wild recruited Grant Farhall to be the man in charge of rebuilding the Wild team. With limited experience under his belt, many questioned the move and Farhall’s first few trades did little to quell this criticism.
Farhall immediately went to work with a busy off-season featured over 20 deals that would ultimately see all but two of the CPHL players Farhall inherited dealt away.
However, Farhall’s first few weeks on the job saw him make some very questionable deals, overpaying for players such as Paul Martin, Harold Druken, Ronald Petrovicky, and Brian Wilsie, none of whom remained with the team for long. For an organization already suffering from a lack of quality assets, these deals could have proved to be fatal for Farhall, crippling the organization both short and long-term. The trades also served to provide ammunition to the fans and media who were already questioning his hiring from Day 1. Indeed, initially Farhall seemed to be living down to expectations.
A Wild Off-season continues
After some initial stumbles, Farhall’s dealings suddenly improved as he made a series of deals which rebuilt his CPHL club. Deals bringing in Sergei Zubov, Rod Brindamour, Radek Dvorak and Alexei Yashin gave Farhall a new nucleus to build around. Farhall seemed to identify veteran players that were available from other clubs, that he believed still had a lot to offer. In a league where youth is often valued above all else, Farhall targeted teams in the midst of rebuilding processes or with specific needs he could meet, and rebuilt his CPHL squad from top to bottom. Since he could not afford young talent, Farhall resorted to acquiring veteran players, raising the average age of his squad to over 30.
The Wild’s lineup at the time he took over when compared to the new squad, illustrate just how active the Wild were.
Lineup at time of Farhall’s Hiring (Unprotected UFAs not shown, OVR shown in brackets)
Todd White (74) – Mike Modano (84) – Marcus Nilson (71)
Randy Robitaille (70) - Milan Kraft (68) – Jason Blake (69)
Jamie Wright (62) – Marc Chounaird (65) – Ryan Malone (66)
Andrew Peters (65) – Aaron Gavey (62) – Francis Lessard (64)
Rhett Warrener (71) – Scott Lachance (66)
Jason Doig (67) – Nolan Pratt (68)
Brad Brown (65) - Joel Bouchard (64)
Jocelyn Thibault (80)
Tommy Salo (72)
Projected New Lineup (as of August 30, 2004)
Leclair (76) – Stumpel (76) – Kovalev (80)
Hrdina (76) – Cullen (72) – Dvorak (75)
Nieminen (69) – Sillinger (72) – Lapointe (70)
Lindgren (67) – Reichel (70) – Healey (64)
Zubov (80) – Rathje (76)
Quintal (71) – York (70)
Timander (68) – Doig (67)
Dunham (76)
Leighton (65)
Evaluation of New Lineup
The Forwards
The Wild should not have a hard time scoring goals. They feature two impressive scoring lines, and moderate scoring threats on their third and fourth lines.
The number one line of Kovalev-Stumpel-Leclair should rack up points. Kovalev was a top 10 scorer in the CPHL 1 season ago, but will likely see his production drop after losing some points in the re-rate. Stumpel is an adequate centre that should be able to feed the puck to finishers Kovalev and Leclair.
The second line features two impressive wingers in Jan Hrdina and Radek Dvorak, however 2nd line centre Matt Cullen is more ideally fit for third line duty, and there is some question whether or not he will be able to feed the puck to his wingers on a consistent basis. An upgrade at this position would be advisable. Ideally if the Wild could recruit a new #1 centre, they could move Stumpel to the #2 spot, and Cullen to the third line. Chances of this happening though are slim.
The third unit of Nieminen, Sillinger, and Lapointe should be able to take care of their own end and chip in with the odd goal. Lapointe though is overpaid given the amount of ice time he will receive. The fourth line will likely not see much ice time, but is capable. If, however injuries force any member of the fourth line to be upgraded to a higher spot in the lineup it could mean bad news for the Wild.
On the farm, the Wild’s first call-ups will likely be Ronald Petrovicky, Andrew Peters, and Aaron Gavey – all capable depth forwards, but less than ideal fits over the long-term should that be required.
The Defenseman.
The Wild’s blueline corp is lead by veteran Sergei Zubov. A consistent offensive force, Zubov provides the Wild with a solid #1 defenseman capable of putting up big numbers. Mike Rathje is the ideal compliment to Zubov – a solid and physical defensive force that will look after things in the Wild own’s end as Zubov makes his forays into the offensive zone. The Wild’s number two pairing of Stephane Quintal and Jason York is solid but aging. Again, injuries could be a concern. The final pairing of Jason Doig and Mattias Timander are an affordable pair that will likely see between 5-10 minutes of ice time per game. If the Wild encounter injuries on their blueline veteran Joel Bouchard can fill in for the short-term with David Cullen being the first call-up from the farm.
Goaltending
The Wild traded away one of the cornerstone of their franchises when they dealt goaltender Jocelyn Thibault. Although it allowed the Wild to plug some holes in other areas, their is no question that it raises questions in the net. Is Mike Dunham capable of being a full-time #1 goalie? Can he remain healthy? Clearly if Dunham does not play up to par, or suffers an injury the Wild are in dire straits with young goalie Michael Leighton their only other options. While Leighton's future is bright, he is clearly not capable of being a #1 tender at this point in his career.
Special Teams.
The Wild’s powerplay should be a force throughout the season. The Wild boast a top end powerplay QB in Sergei Zubov, as well as two solid forwards units. However, unless the Wild plan on playing Zubov the full 2 minutes of every power play situation, they have a significant drop off in their second blueline unit which will feature Stephane Quintal and Jason York on the points. None the less, Zubov remains the key to any man-up success the Wild enjoy.
Penalty Killing should be solid led by defensive forwards such as Mike Sillinger, Martin Lapointe, Mats Lindgren and solid blueliners such as Jason York and Mike Rathje. The key for the Wild will be to limit the power play chances they offer their opposition by playing a disciplined style of game.
Keys to Success
1. Avoiding the injury bug. Icing an veteran team has its advantages but if the team runs into injury problems it could be disastrous. The Wild could withstand one or two injuries, but anymore than that and the season could be a write off. The Wild are counting on players such as Leclair, Kovalev, Dunham and Zubov to avoid the injury bug.
2. The play of Mike Dunham. With a 76 OVR, Dunham should be a solid goaltender if he remains healthy. However, should he falter the Wild could be in the market for a goaltender. Most teams in the CPHL cannot compete without solid goaltending and the Wild are no different. The question remains whether or not Dunham has the stuff to be a #1 netminder in the league.
3. Scoring. If the Wild are to win, it will most likely be because their offensive players outperform their opponent’s offensive players. To this end, players like Kovalev, Leclair, Hrdina, Dvorak and Stumpel must remain healthy and post big numbers. The Wild are not a team that is going to win many 2-1 games. They need to score goals – pure and simple.
Season Projections
Assuming they remain healthy, The Wild have a team fully capable of competing for a playoff spot in the West, and perhaps even winning one round. However, the team is not a threat to take home the big prize unless they upgrade their #1 centre position and goaltending. That being said, if fully healthy, this is a team that could cause problems in the playoffs. However, the Wild do not have the depth to deal with any number of long-term injuries to their top talent. Any serious injuries could spell disaster for this aging group of players.
Prospect Report
New GM Grant Farhall inherited a club that had traded away virtually every top prospect in the organization. Farhall has paid little attention to rebuilding the future of the club, instead focusing his efforts on acquiring veteran help for his CPHL squad. Apart from Niklas Kronwall and 2004 first rounder Alexander Radulov, the organization has virtually no blue chip prospects to speak of. And with a CPHL squad featuring only one player 23 or under (Michael Leighton) the future is far from bright for the Wild. At some point Farhall will have to turn his eye to the future, and when he does, he may not like what he sees.
Final Thoughts
New GM Farhall has done an impressive job of building a dangerous CPHL squad, capable of gaining a playoff spot and perhaps a little more. However, Farhall has done little to address the long-term needs of the organization and at some point will have to undertake a long-term rebuilding project or suffer the consequences, which will likely include his job.
If the Wild are not in a playoff spot come the trade deadline, one could expect this rebuilding process to start early with the Wild trading off many of their veterans in exchange for picks and prospects. If, however the Wild are in the playoff race come spring, this rebuilding will likely not start until the 2005 off-season. At that point, expect the Wild to begin what will have to be the very lengthy process of building a championship squad from the ground up. Farhall has proven himself to be a shrewd trader, but his ability to identify young talent and draft effectively remains in question.
For now, the jury is out on Farhall and his new Minnesota Wild team. A successful season culminating in a playoff spot could go a long way to giving Farhall the time and security he needs to implement a long-term plan.
Introduction
The 2003/2004 edition of the Minnesota Wild was a frustrating team to watch indeed. At times the Wild looked capable of beating any team, and at other teams looked only marginally better than your average expansion squad. An up and down season culminated in the Minnesota Wild squeaking into the playoffs only to be rolled over in the first round of the playoffs. The retirement of second line centre Joe Juneau coupled with a total of 8 unrestricted free agents (2 of which were protected), including many key forwards, left the Wild with many gaping holes into to fill, with limited assets to use as trade bait to fill these needs. It was clear that the 2004/2005 edition of the Wild would be much different from the 2003/2004 version, but few expected the degree of change that would ultimately happen. .
A Rocky Start
Following the resignation of their General Manager, the Wild recruited Grant Farhall to be the man in charge of rebuilding the Wild team. With limited experience under his belt, many questioned the move and Farhall’s first few trades did little to quell this criticism.
Farhall immediately went to work with a busy off-season featured over 20 deals that would ultimately see all but two of the CPHL players Farhall inherited dealt away.
However, Farhall’s first few weeks on the job saw him make some very questionable deals, overpaying for players such as Paul Martin, Harold Druken, Ronald Petrovicky, and Brian Wilsie, none of whom remained with the team for long. For an organization already suffering from a lack of quality assets, these deals could have proved to be fatal for Farhall, crippling the organization both short and long-term. The trades also served to provide ammunition to the fans and media who were already questioning his hiring from Day 1. Indeed, initially Farhall seemed to be living down to expectations.
A Wild Off-season continues
After some initial stumbles, Farhall’s dealings suddenly improved as he made a series of deals which rebuilt his CPHL club. Deals bringing in Sergei Zubov, Rod Brindamour, Radek Dvorak and Alexei Yashin gave Farhall a new nucleus to build around. Farhall seemed to identify veteran players that were available from other clubs, that he believed still had a lot to offer. In a league where youth is often valued above all else, Farhall targeted teams in the midst of rebuilding processes or with specific needs he could meet, and rebuilt his CPHL squad from top to bottom. Since he could not afford young talent, Farhall resorted to acquiring veteran players, raising the average age of his squad to over 30.
The Wild’s lineup at the time he took over when compared to the new squad, illustrate just how active the Wild were.
Lineup at time of Farhall’s Hiring (Unprotected UFAs not shown, OVR shown in brackets)
Todd White (74) – Mike Modano (84) – Marcus Nilson (71)
Randy Robitaille (70) - Milan Kraft (68) – Jason Blake (69)
Jamie Wright (62) – Marc Chounaird (65) – Ryan Malone (66)
Andrew Peters (65) – Aaron Gavey (62) – Francis Lessard (64)
Rhett Warrener (71) – Scott Lachance (66)
Jason Doig (67) – Nolan Pratt (68)
Brad Brown (65) - Joel Bouchard (64)
Jocelyn Thibault (80)
Tommy Salo (72)
Projected New Lineup (as of August 30, 2004)
Leclair (76) – Stumpel (76) – Kovalev (80)
Hrdina (76) – Cullen (72) – Dvorak (75)
Nieminen (69) – Sillinger (72) – Lapointe (70)
Lindgren (67) – Reichel (70) – Healey (64)
Zubov (80) – Rathje (76)
Quintal (71) – York (70)
Timander (68) – Doig (67)
Dunham (76)
Leighton (65)
Evaluation of New Lineup
The Forwards
The Wild should not have a hard time scoring goals. They feature two impressive scoring lines, and moderate scoring threats on their third and fourth lines.
The number one line of Kovalev-Stumpel-Leclair should rack up points. Kovalev was a top 10 scorer in the CPHL 1 season ago, but will likely see his production drop after losing some points in the re-rate. Stumpel is an adequate centre that should be able to feed the puck to finishers Kovalev and Leclair.
The second line features two impressive wingers in Jan Hrdina and Radek Dvorak, however 2nd line centre Matt Cullen is more ideally fit for third line duty, and there is some question whether or not he will be able to feed the puck to his wingers on a consistent basis. An upgrade at this position would be advisable. Ideally if the Wild could recruit a new #1 centre, they could move Stumpel to the #2 spot, and Cullen to the third line. Chances of this happening though are slim.
The third unit of Nieminen, Sillinger, and Lapointe should be able to take care of their own end and chip in with the odd goal. Lapointe though is overpaid given the amount of ice time he will receive. The fourth line will likely not see much ice time, but is capable. If, however injuries force any member of the fourth line to be upgraded to a higher spot in the lineup it could mean bad news for the Wild.
On the farm, the Wild’s first call-ups will likely be Ronald Petrovicky, Andrew Peters, and Aaron Gavey – all capable depth forwards, but less than ideal fits over the long-term should that be required.
The Defenseman.
The Wild’s blueline corp is lead by veteran Sergei Zubov. A consistent offensive force, Zubov provides the Wild with a solid #1 defenseman capable of putting up big numbers. Mike Rathje is the ideal compliment to Zubov – a solid and physical defensive force that will look after things in the Wild own’s end as Zubov makes his forays into the offensive zone. The Wild’s number two pairing of Stephane Quintal and Jason York is solid but aging. Again, injuries could be a concern. The final pairing of Jason Doig and Mattias Timander are an affordable pair that will likely see between 5-10 minutes of ice time per game. If the Wild encounter injuries on their blueline veteran Joel Bouchard can fill in for the short-term with David Cullen being the first call-up from the farm.
Goaltending
The Wild traded away one of the cornerstone of their franchises when they dealt goaltender Jocelyn Thibault. Although it allowed the Wild to plug some holes in other areas, their is no question that it raises questions in the net. Is Mike Dunham capable of being a full-time #1 goalie? Can he remain healthy? Clearly if Dunham does not play up to par, or suffers an injury the Wild are in dire straits with young goalie Michael Leighton their only other options. While Leighton's future is bright, he is clearly not capable of being a #1 tender at this point in his career.
Special Teams.
The Wild’s powerplay should be a force throughout the season. The Wild boast a top end powerplay QB in Sergei Zubov, as well as two solid forwards units. However, unless the Wild plan on playing Zubov the full 2 minutes of every power play situation, they have a significant drop off in their second blueline unit which will feature Stephane Quintal and Jason York on the points. None the less, Zubov remains the key to any man-up success the Wild enjoy.
Penalty Killing should be solid led by defensive forwards such as Mike Sillinger, Martin Lapointe, Mats Lindgren and solid blueliners such as Jason York and Mike Rathje. The key for the Wild will be to limit the power play chances they offer their opposition by playing a disciplined style of game.
Keys to Success
1. Avoiding the injury bug. Icing an veteran team has its advantages but if the team runs into injury problems it could be disastrous. The Wild could withstand one or two injuries, but anymore than that and the season could be a write off. The Wild are counting on players such as Leclair, Kovalev, Dunham and Zubov to avoid the injury bug.
2. The play of Mike Dunham. With a 76 OVR, Dunham should be a solid goaltender if he remains healthy. However, should he falter the Wild could be in the market for a goaltender. Most teams in the CPHL cannot compete without solid goaltending and the Wild are no different. The question remains whether or not Dunham has the stuff to be a #1 netminder in the league.
3. Scoring. If the Wild are to win, it will most likely be because their offensive players outperform their opponent’s offensive players. To this end, players like Kovalev, Leclair, Hrdina, Dvorak and Stumpel must remain healthy and post big numbers. The Wild are not a team that is going to win many 2-1 games. They need to score goals – pure and simple.
Season Projections
Assuming they remain healthy, The Wild have a team fully capable of competing for a playoff spot in the West, and perhaps even winning one round. However, the team is not a threat to take home the big prize unless they upgrade their #1 centre position and goaltending. That being said, if fully healthy, this is a team that could cause problems in the playoffs. However, the Wild do not have the depth to deal with any number of long-term injuries to their top talent. Any serious injuries could spell disaster for this aging group of players.
Prospect Report
New GM Grant Farhall inherited a club that had traded away virtually every top prospect in the organization. Farhall has paid little attention to rebuilding the future of the club, instead focusing his efforts on acquiring veteran help for his CPHL squad. Apart from Niklas Kronwall and 2004 first rounder Alexander Radulov, the organization has virtually no blue chip prospects to speak of. And with a CPHL squad featuring only one player 23 or under (Michael Leighton) the future is far from bright for the Wild. At some point Farhall will have to turn his eye to the future, and when he does, he may not like what he sees.
Final Thoughts
New GM Farhall has done an impressive job of building a dangerous CPHL squad, capable of gaining a playoff spot and perhaps a little more. However, Farhall has done little to address the long-term needs of the organization and at some point will have to undertake a long-term rebuilding project or suffer the consequences, which will likely include his job.
If the Wild are not in a playoff spot come the trade deadline, one could expect this rebuilding process to start early with the Wild trading off many of their veterans in exchange for picks and prospects. If, however the Wild are in the playoff race come spring, this rebuilding will likely not start until the 2005 off-season. At that point, expect the Wild to begin what will have to be the very lengthy process of building a championship squad from the ground up. Farhall has proven himself to be a shrewd trader, but his ability to identify young talent and draft effectively remains in question.
For now, the jury is out on Farhall and his new Minnesota Wild team. A successful season culminating in a playoff spot could go a long way to giving Farhall the time and security he needs to implement a long-term plan.